Okay here's my complete current theory (I'm flexible and change this theory often).
Assad is still in control of Syria but is clinging on by the skin of his teeth as the Sunni rebels gain more and more control of Damascus and Aleppo. Assad has no stomach to fight Israel and is busy trying to cling onto power. Assad, being an Alawite (Shia) is backed by both Iran and by Putin.
Something happens and an alliance of the al-Qaeda backed Sunni rebels, Lebanon, the Palestinians under Hamas, and maybe Jordan (with Saudi funding) attack and invade Israel. They cause a lot of damage and the raping of Israel occurs. Facing a desperate situation, heavy casualties and some loss of land (the thinning of Jacob) Israel has no choice but to retaliate as hard as she can. Damascus is nuked.
Assad is killed and now both the Sunnis and Iran are furious. Also, Hezbollah (Shia) suffer great casualties as they are based in Lebanon, possibly suffering as a side effect from the Damascus nuke.
Syria is effectively finished as a power, thousands of Palestinians are killed or forced to flee, and Lebanon is just a shell of her former self. Jordan stays out of it from now on. Putin is not pleased by the loss of Assad as he knows that the entire balance of the Middle East has been changed once again. Now both the Sunnis and Shia want revenge on Israel.
The World hates Israel even more because of the nuke, but Lebanon, Syria and Jordan are not in a position to ever dare fight Israel again, nor do they have the resources to do so.
Israel is now in a position to repair the damage and grow even more as a major power.
This sets the scene for the forthcoming Ezekiel war.