APRIL 8th PREDICTION

[rollinTHUNDER]

EU-mission to monitor Asian peace agreement

16.08.2005 - 09:55 CET | By Lisbeth Kirk

The EU is for the first time to head a mission in Asia to supervise the implementation of a peace agreement in Indonesia's Aceh province.

On Monday (15 August) the Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) from the Aceh province signed a truce in Helsinki aimed at ending nearly three decades of fighting.

A team of 200 to 250 monitors from the EU and from five countries from the Association of South-East Nations (Asean) are to oversee the agreed disarmament of separatist rebels and the withdrawal of Indonesian troops from the province.

Despite lacking formal approval from the bloc

[rollinTHUNDER]

UK coin redesign puts euro entry into question

19.08.2005 - 09:28 CET | By Lisbeth Kirk

For the first time since 1971, the Royal Mint is preparing to redesign British coins.

The plans, announced on Thursday (18 August), have sparked claims from the Vote No campaign that the government has ruled out joining the eurozone, the Financial Times reports.

"I don't think anybody believes there is any prospect of us joining the euro in the foreseeable future. Yesterday's announcement shows institutions are planning on that basis", said Neil O'Brien from the Vote No campaign.

The UK Treasury insisted its position had not changed on the euro.

Meanwhile, in Denmark, which is also not a member of the eurozone, the likelihood of joining the single currency also appears to be dropping.

Earlier this month, Danish polls revealed record low support for joining euro.

Support for the euro dropped to 49.9 percent, the lowest since December 2003, a poll by the Greens showed.

Jens Asmussen, senior analyst from Nordea Bank said the Danish government currently has "completely put on hold a Danish referendum on the euro".

Steen Bocian, chief analyst at the country

[rollinTHUNDER]

Iran slams European trade hypocrisy

22.08.2005 - 09:23 CET | By Andrew Rettman

Iran has accused the EU of hypocrisy in an escalating war of words following Tehran's decision to resume its nuclear fuel programme earlier this month.

"We are importing goods worth billions of US dollars from some certain countries but they are not buying our oil or other products. Such countries should be thankful to us but they behaved like we owe them", president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told the Iranian parliament on Sunday (21 August), the European press reports.

The statement alludes to trade with the UK, France and Germany - the EU 3 - which have represented Europe and the US in recent attempts to stop Iran from building uranium enrichment centrifuges at its plant in Esfahan, in the heart of the country.

The facility could be used to produce low enriched uranium for generating energy but also for making highly enriched uranium used in weapons.

"They expect to intervene in Iran's domestic affairs and make Iran silent about important regional and international issues", Mr Ahmadinejad said, adding "What kind of balance is this? This is cruel and unfair. Our nation will not tolerate such behaviour on the international scene".

The president also pointed out that Iran has a "legitimate right" to produce enriched uranium for peaceful purposes under the terms of the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Mr Ahmadinejad's remarks came ahead of a parliamentary debate on Iran's new cabinet, with most US and European press describing the government's nominees as pro-nuclear hardliners.

Western diplomats speculate that the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) might refer Iran to the UN security council as early as the first week of September if Tehran continues along current lines.

The UN could slap trade sanctions on the country, but the US and Israel have refused to rule out military intervention to stop Iran getting the bomb.

The IAEA passed a resolution calling for a temporary halt to all Iranian enrichment activities on 11 August, after talks between Tehran and the EU 3 broke down on 8 August.

http://euobserver.com/?sid=9&aid=19709

[rollinTHUNDER]

A huge challenge, a great opportunity

By Javier Solana

23/8/2005

Israel's disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank has now started. This is a momentous occasion, for both the Israeli and Palestinian people. For a long time, the quest for a Palestinian state seemed hopeless. Now the parties have a chance to do something about it.

It is manifestly in the interest of Palestinians, Israelis and indeed the rest of the world that this operation is a success, with both sides facing important elections next year. We therefore need responsible action and leadership by all concerned, including the wider international community. Disengagement is a huge challenge but also a great opportunity. If successful, it could revive the long-stalled peace process and enable a return to the negotiating track and the implementation of the road map plan.

The stakes in handling the political, security and socioeconomic dimensions of disengagement are high. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's determination to proceed in the face of significant opposition from within his own Likud party is striking enough. But seeing Israeli forces having to forcibly remove settler communities highlights the dramatic nature of the operation and underscores the support that the Israeli government deserves.

For the Palestinians disengagement is a chance to win over the skeptics, in Israel and elsewhere, and show that they can actually run their own affairs in a responsible manner. If they rise to the occasion, it could provide them with the much-needed hope and reassurance that they are on their way to full statehood across the occupied territories.

The security aspects of disengagement are essential for its success. For Israel, the logical priority is to ensure that Gaza will not become hostile territory from which terrorists launch attacks on neighboring communities and the rest of Israel. The Palestinian Authority faces tough decisions concerning improving its ability to maintain law and order. Statehood means, as PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has emphasized, respect for the rule of law and a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. Both for the sake of disengagement, but also to promote a return to political negotiations afterward, the PA must move against those individuals and groups who continue to use violence. Then there is the challenge of handling the economics of disengagement. All parties have an interest in ensuring the economic viability of one of the most deprived, over-populated and ill-serviced areas of the Middle East.

Amid all this, one thing is clear: We simply cannot afford to fail. That was my clear message when I visited Israel and the Palestinian areas, including Gaza, a few weeks ago. I also stressed the European Union's willingness to do whatever it can to help, at the request of the parties. The EU is already strongly engaged, with the parties and on the ground, in support of disengagement and the peace process. And it will continue to be so in the weeks and months ahead, in a spirit of friendship and partnership with both peoples.

The EU and its member-states have long been by far the largest donor to the Palestinians, giving both 500 million euros annually in emergency support and medium-term assistance to institution-building projects. The European Commission has set aside 60 million euros especially for the disengagement process. Moreover, the EU backs and supports the efforts of Quartet envoy James Wolfensohn, making sure that our efforts are coordinated carefully with other donors and spent to the greatest effect. In addition, the EU is ready, if asked by the parties, to play the role of third party in the area of customs management and border control. This would help to facilitate a free flow of goods and people between Gaza and the rest of the world, in a manner that addresses Israel's security concerns.

We are also helping the Palestinians to consolidate the various security organizations under a clear political chain of control. Through training, equipment and financial support, the EU and the member-states are helping Palestinian police forces to increase their operational capacity and transform their organizational setup. A core unit of EU advisers is already deployed in Ramallah and Gaza city. Provided that benchmarks for performance and accountability are met, we are ready to expand our commitments in the area of security.

All these steps, coordinated closely with the United States and others in the Quartet, present tangible evidence that the EU does not just say it wants disengagement to succeed: We are prepared to step up our engagement to make that happen.

We know from experience that the search for peace in the Middle East is hard, and that the absence of peace hurts all of us, inside the region and beyond. That is why today and tomorrow our efforts should be focused on making disengagement work. But we should do so with the hope and commitment that soon after, we can build on a successful disengagement to restart the negotiating track and resume the road to a two-state settlement. In that context we will have to deal with post-Gaza issues including further withdrawals, the routing of the barrier and Jerusalem.

Windows of opportunity are rare enough in international politics and especially in the troubled Middle East. We cannot afford to simply let it close.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/615325.html

[rollinTHUNDER]

Aug. 23, 2005 3:20 | Updated Aug. 23, 2005 20:15

Exclusive: Illegal settlements are next

By HERB KEINON

Israel is likely to begin dismantling unauthorized settlements in the West Bank within 90 days of the evacuation of the northern Samaria settlements, a senior government official told The Jerusalem Post.

According to the official, the evacuation of the Gaza settlements has "changed the rules of the game," both in regard to Israel's expected reaction to any Palestinian terrorist attacks

[rollinTHUNDER]

Wednesday August 24, 4:29 PM

Israel and Egypt agree on Gaza deployment of Egyptian guards

Israel and Egypt have reached an agreement on the deployment of hundreds of Egyptian border guards along the southern border of the Gaza Strip, an Israeli official announced.

"We have reached total agreement with the Egyptians, there only remains the green light from the government and the Knesset (parliament) to be able to organise the signing ceremony," General Amos Gilad, a senior defence ministry official, told military radio.

"This is an extremely detailed accord which fixes everything down to the number of pistols" for the Egyptian guards.

The announcement came as Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said Israel should have withdrawn all of its troops from the Gaza Strip within the month.

"It will take at least until the middle of September, maybe a few days more, maybe a few days less," Mofaz told army radio, the day after the completion of the historic operation to evacuate settlers from Gaza and a small part of the northern West Bank.

While nearly all soldiers were due to be withdrawn from Gaza as part of the so-called disengagement plan, Israel had intended to keep a small contingent on the Rafah border which has been a major conduit of arms smuggling.

However Egypt and Israel have been locked in discussions for several months in order that Egyptian soldiers take responsibility for the border in the aftermath of the pullout.

Israeli-Egyptian relations have improved significantly in recent months, with both countries keen to ensure that the pullout does not create a vacuum which is subsequently filled by the radical Islamist movement Hamas.

A source close to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said the accord should be approved by the government and parliament "in the coming days."

"All the obstacles to an agreement were lifted when the Egyptians made a commitment not to transfer arms to the Palestinian Authority," he added.

"The aim of this deployment of Egyptian border guards will be to prevent the transfer of weaponry from Egypt and the infiltration of terrorists."

On Friday a high-ranking Egyptian official said Cairo would start to deploy some 750 armed guards along the Gaza border in mid-week.

The official told AFP that the guards would take positions along the 12-kilometre (seven-mile) stretch across the border from the Philadelphi road, which flanks the border and is currently controlled by the Israeli army.

The Egyptian deployment will be the first by paramilitary units on the border since the 1967 war when the Gaza Strip, then administered by Egypt, and the Sinai Peninsula were seized by Israel.

Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres told public radio that the agreement on the border guards "would in no way affect" the demilitarisation of the Sinai, as stipulated in Egypt and Israel's 1979 peace treaty.

Under the 1979 peace accord between Israel and Egypt, only lightly armed police officers could be posted at the demilitarized zone after the Israeli withdrawal from the Sinai.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/050824/1/3ugmq.html

[rollinTHUNDER]

EU Envoy Otte: Withdrawal is the Model for Jerusalem

16:58 Aug 28, '05 / 23 Av 5765

By Nissan Ratzlav-Katz

The EU envoy to the Middle East, Mark Otte, said in an interview appearing this weekend that Israel's recent uprooting of Jewish communities is a model for the rest of Samaria, Judea and Jerusalem.

"Our position regarding the West Bank and east Jerusalem is identical - they are occupied territories, and the future of Jerusalem will also be discussed in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians," Mr. Otte told Al-Quds, a Jerusalem-based Arabic-language newspaper.

Otte dismissed statements by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon that Israel will retain large blocs of Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria in any permanent arrangement with the Palestinian Authority. Such commitments, the European Union envoy asserted, are nothing more than "spin" intended for internal Israeli consumption.

The EU also does not take seriously Israel's demand that the PA fulfill its commitments to disarm Arab terrorist groups. According to the Al-Quds interview, Mr. Otte said the EU does not demand that the PA confront terrorist groups militarily, or that the PA initiate a civil war in order to carry out its obligations.

In June, Mr. Otte defended European Union contacts with Hamas representatives, despite the organization being listed as a terrorist organization in EU countries, by saying that "if they are duly elected in free and fair elections under international supervision, you have to know what to do with elected representatives."

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=88768

[rollinTHUNDER]

Brussels and London may clash over anti-terror rules

30.08.2005 - 09:58 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The European Commission is planning this week to propose a set of immigration rules which could contradict the UK's anti-terrorist measures.

The EU executive will debate four new bills on returning illegal immigrants and failed asylum applicants at its first meeting after the summer break on Thursday (1 September).

The new rules will set minimum common European standards, aiming to put an end to the phenomenon of illegal immigrants moving around the EU in a bid to reach countries with the highest human rights provisions.

The regulations are expected to give details on how long people can be detained before being sent back to home countries and under what conditions deportations should be carried out.

According to a commission spokesman, the provisions will be based on international agreements, which state that deportees should not be sent to countries where they could face persecution or torture.

In breach of international law?

This point has been the main bone of contention between the UN and several human rights groups over the UK's plans following the July bombings in London.

Earlier this month, the British government unveiled its anti-terrorist agenda, including a proposal to expel radical individuals who provoke violent and negative sentiments which could lead to terrorism or gather support for terrorist acts.

London also suggested that a global database should be set up to list foreigners with "unacceptable behaviour", such as radical preachers and publishers of extremist websites and articles.

Such people should be vetted automatically before entering the UK, the proposal says.

According to Amnesty International "The vagueness and breadth of the definition of 'unacceptable behaviour' and 'terrorism' can lead to further injustice and risk further undermining human rights' protection in the UK. Instead of strengthening security, they will further alienate vulnerable sections of society".

The organisation has argued that the UK government's claim to seek "diplomatic assurances" for the expellees is not a sufficient guarantee, and maintains that the right not to be subjected to torture or other ill-treatment, or to be sent to a country with such a risk, applies to everybody, no matter what the charges against them may be.

Britain will have three months to decide whether to opt out from the proposed EU legislation or to go ahead with it.

http://euobserver.com/?sid=9&aid=19742

[rollinTHUNDER]

Chirac and Putin support German UN bid

30.08.2005 - 09:56 CET | By Honor Mahony

Both France and Russia have indicated their support for Germany's efforts to get a permanent seat in the UN security council.

Speaking at a meeting of French ambassadors on Monday (29 August), French president Jacues Chirac said that the "too long delayed" expansion of the security council should now take place.

He called sensible a proposal by Germany, Japan, India and Brazil to temporarily forgo having the right to a veto, as it meets the "demands for efficiency and the representation of different regions, particularly Africa".

Russia's president Vladimir Putin gave his support on the same day.

"We believe that Germany definitely has the right to ask for a permanent seat", said Mr Putin on Monday following a meeting with the Italian prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi.

"We will support Berlin in the context of broader UN reform that is backed by a majority of its members", he added.

Mr Putin's words are likely to irritate Italy which is against Germany having a permanent seat in the security council and is looking for one itself.

However, the economic ties between Berlin and Moscow are much stronger than between Rome and Moscow.

The US has also been cool on Germany's UN bid - particularly after the two sides fell out over the Iraq war.

German chancellor Gerhard Schroder also recently expressed opposition to any military intervention in Iran, responding directly to a comment by the US president that all options were on the table.

Months of negotiations

At the moment, the UN security council has fifteen members. Of these, five are permanent veto-wielding members

[rollinTHUNDER]

Monday August 29, 7:36 PM

Solana leads drive to revive peace process after Gaza pullout

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana was meeting Israeli and Palestinian leaders as the international community tried to breathe life back into the peace process after the historic pullout from Gaza.

The first evacuation of Jewish settlers from the occupied Palestinian territory, which was wrapped up last week, has raised hopes of a new chapter for the Middle East after five years of conflict.

But a suicide bombing in southern Israel on Sunday, in apparent revenge for the killing of five Palestinians last week, served as a sharp reminder of the scale of the task ahead.

Solana's tour coincides with a visit by the head of the Egyptian intelligence services, Omar Suleiman, who is expected to urge militant groups to continue adhering to a truce agreement brokered in Cairo.

After arriving in Israel on Sunday, the top European diplomat was due to continue a round of meetings with Israeli officials, including Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz and Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres.

He should then head to Gaza City for talks with Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas later Monday and with prime minister Ahmed Qorei on Tuesday.

The European Union, along with the United States, United Nations and Russia, is one of the sponsors of the roadmap which targets the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside a secure Israel.

The blueprint has made next to no progress since it was endorsed by the Israelis and Palestinians in 2003 amid continuing bloodshed, prompting Israel to come up with its unilateral plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip.

Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, who met with Solana late Sunday, said there could be no progress on the roadmap until the Palestinian Authority moved against armed militant groups such as the perpetrators of Sunday's attack by a bus terminus in the southern city of Beersheva.

The attack was jointly claimed by the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and Islamic Jihad, which both pledged to avenge the killing of five of their members by Israeli troops in a West Bank arrest operation last week.

"We cannot have a return to the roadmap unless the terrorist organisations are dismantled," said Shalom.

"If this wave of terrorism against Israeli citizens continues, I fear that this painful initiative (the Gaza pullout) will end in failure and the hopes for peace will be dashed," added the hawkish minister.

Solana's spokeswoman said the Spanish diplomat had told Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on Sunday that the Gaza pullout was an opportunity to make progress on the wider peace process than must not to be missed.

"It would be a very big mistake not to capitalise on the momentum given by the redeployment," Solana was quoted as telling Sharon.

"Everyone must show courage and use this new-found hope. We are aware of the difficulties but we must move forward."

Suleiman's visit is seen as crucial to efforts to persuade the likes of Jihad and its larger rival Hamas to refrain from attacks, especially in the run-up to the departure of the last Israeli troops from Gaza in mid-September.

After meeting Abbas, he is expected to hold round-table discussions with the main Palestinian movements and face-to-face talks on Tuesday.

His visit will also feature discussions on the future of the southern Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip.

The Israeli cabinet has approved plans for some 750 Egyptian guards to take up position on the border after the departure of the last soldiers from Gaza.

However, a source close to Sharon said there is still no agreement between Israel and the Palestinians over the border crossing itself.

"We are ready to let the Palestinians leave Gaza through Rafah without us being in control. But there is no question of allowing Palestinians or merchandise from Egypt cross into Gaza without being checked by us," he said.

Israel wants all those entering Gaza to pass through an Israeli-controlled border post near Kerem Shalom kibbutz where the Israeli, Egyptian and Palestinian territories converge.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/050829/1/3ukpd.html