"Global Warming" Oscillations?

[Still Alive]

20 hours ago, The Barbarian said:

And hence more severe storms, which is what we are now seeing on the Gulf coast.   Hurricanes run off moisture and heat.   Both of which are rising due to warming.

Nature pretty much seeks the most efficient flow of things.    Constructal law, and so on.

One of the comedic things about the global warming alarmists was when, A good while back, they warned that storms were gonna get worse - yet the exact opposite happened. Eventually we got into a "more stormy" period, and eventually we'll get back to a less stormy period. The whole thing is cyclical. That is all we're seeing It's all we've ever seen. We didn't cause the little ice age, etc. And we're not causing the current cycles. Enjoy the nice weather, prepare for the storms, and continue to live your life, knowing that if you live to be 100 you will see your local climate go through some minor changes. We're coming out of a very long ice age as I type this.

I just keep thinking of the phrase, "correlation does not equal causation." And there really has not been that much correlation anyway. 

This site is very helpful: https://realclimatescience.com

He's been pointed by AGW alarmists to the point that he has to put an "are you human" question up before you enter the site. Apparently he's over the target. 

[RV_Wizard]

2 hours ago, The Barbarian said:

Property damage caused by tropical storms, particularly tropical cyclones like hurricanes, has been on the rise in the country, leading to significant insured losses since the early 1990s

But of course!  The ex-spurts predicted a massive increase of hurricanes because of El Nino, so we went 12 years without one.  You can't say God doesn't have a sense of humor.

Matthew 7:26-27 And every one that heareth these sayings of mine, and doeth them not, shall be likened unto a foolish man, which built his house upon the sand: And the rain descended, and the floods came, and the winds blew, and beat upon that house; and it fell: and great was the fall of it.

2 hours ago, The Barbarian said:

It's been used in places where water is desperately needed, like Saudi Arabia.   Not very viable for most places.  

You DO need a supply of salt water, but if California wasn't taking so much Arizona and Nevada would be better off.  problem solved.

2 hours ago, The Barbarian said:

China is capitalistic. 

State owned capitalism is not the same as free market capitalism.  China is a communist socialist state.

2 hours ago, The Barbarian said:

Turns out humans put put more CO2 in a month than any major eruption.

Misleading.  You're talking about a regional volcano VS the totality of mankind.  Lets look at Mt St Helens VS the rest of Washington state.

 

2 hours ago, The Barbarian said:

ailing to do what we should, is why the climate is causing problems for us.

What is causing the most problems are the fear merchants who come up with a new catastrophe every two years.

[The Barbarian]

Property damage caused by tropical storms, particularly tropical cyclones like hurricanes, has been on the rise in the country, leading to significant insured losses since the early 1990s

7 hours ago, RV_Wizard said:

But of course!  The ex-spurts predicted a massive increase of hurricanes because of El Nino, so we went 12 years without one.

That's  a testable assumption... first, there was not a prediction of more hurricanes.   The prediction was that there would be more severe (class 3 and up) hurricanes.  

So let's see how that worked...

Actually, there have been more hurricanes, but as you see, there was a significant increase in the number of severe hurricanes, as predicted.

Desalinization used in places where water is desperately needed, like Saudi Arabia.   Not very viable for most places.  

7 hours ago, RV_Wizard said:

You DO need a supply of salt water, but if California wasn't taking so much Arizona and Nevada would be better off.  problem solved.

If people didn't need water, it wouldn't be a problem.   But they do.  Agriculture depends on water, and as you just learned, warming means the American West gets less water.   And as you now realize, desalinization isn't economically feasible yet.

And you're wrong; China is capitalistic.

7 hours ago, RV_Wizard said:

State owned capitalism is not the same as free market capitalism. 

It's not state-owned.   You were really misled there.   It's private companies.  

7 hours ago, RV_Wizard said:

China is a communist socialist state.

With private enterprise, a stock market, and a lot of millionaires.     You really didn't know that?

Turns out humans put put more CO2 in a month than any major eruption.

7 hours ago, RV_Wizard said:

Misleading.  You're talking about a regional volcano VS the totality of mankind.  Lets look at Mt St Helens VS the rest of Washington state.

Washington state is continuously producing CO2 emissions.   So is Mt. St. Helens.  But not nearly as much.    Maybe every few hundred years, it puts out as much as a large forest fire.   Which Washington State has every few decades.

7 hours ago, RV_Wizard said:

What is causing the most problems are the fear merchants who come up with a new catastrophe every two years.

Those ranchers in the high plains and the property owners on the Gulf Coast are probably not in a mood for excuses like yours.

 

[The Barbarian]

9 hours ago, Still Alive said:

One of the comedic things about the global warming alarmists was when, A good while back, they warned that storms were gonna get worse - yet the exact opposite happened.

See my response above.  Look at the graph of over a half-century of storms.   Severe storms are much more frequent in the last 20 years.   As predicted.  If you thought about it, it would be obvious.   Hurricanes are heat engines.    The more heat in the oceans, the stronger the hurricane.

9 hours ago, Still Alive said:

I just keep thinking of the phrase, "correlation does not equal causation." And there really has not been that much correlation anyway. 

See the data.   No point in denial, now.

[RV_Wizard]

10 hours ago, The Barbarian said:

That's  a testable assumption... first, there was not a prediction of more hurricanes.  

Actually, there were.  It's just hard at this point to go back to find quotes of what people were saying in 2005.  It's hard enough to find published articles that old.  In addition to all the spurious claims from Al Gore, the inconvenient liar, I did find this article.

The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. The likely range of ACE index is 120%-190% of the median. This prediction reflects a very likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.

The predicted 2005 activity reflects 1) an expected continuation of conditions associated with the tropics-wide multi-decadal signal, which has favored above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and 2) an expected continuation of warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean than can be accounted for by the multi-decadal signal alone.   source

The New York Times published this in 2007.

In February, researchers led by James Kossin, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Wisconsin, recalibrated recent and early satellite data on hurricanes using information from the National Climatic Data Center, a NOAA archive in Asheville, N.C. They concluded that hurricane frequency had increased, but only in the Atlantic, possibly because temperatures there are chronically just about warm enough for storms; so even modest warming makes hurricanes more likely.  source

I did make one error, though.  It was 10 years without a hurricane.

This is a topic for extremists to vent their idiocy.  So for entertainment's sake, here is some more extremist idiocy.

“The world has been chilling sharply for about 20 years,” ecologist Kenneth Watt said in 1970. “If present trends continue, the world will be about 4 degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990 but 11 degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

According to the San Jose Mercury News, Brown said that “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000.

 Back in 2004, the British government’s chief scientist, Professor David King, said that “Antarctica is likely to be the world’s only habitable continent by the end of this century if global warming remains unchecked.”

Back in 2000, climate scientist David Viner had a very dire prediction for those living in England: Snow was going to become almost extinct there.... “Expect more extreme winters thanks to global warming, say scientists.” (Same paper, 2018)

During the negotiations for the Copenhagen agreement in 2009, former U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown predicted that if they didn’t solve the “impasse” they found themselves in within 50 days, the world was pretty much doomed.

 Prince Charles warned us all “that he had calculated that we have just 96 months left to save the world,” (2008)

“If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit from the year 2025 to 2050, according to these projections,” ....“The rise in global temperature is predicted to cause a thermal expansion of the oceans and to melt glaciers and polar ice, thus causing sea levels to rise by one to four feet by the middle of the next century.” (1988)

“Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.” (1995)

“Gore also claims temperature rise from increases in man-made carbon dioxide emissions were ‘uninterrupted and intensifying,'” Bastasch wrote. “He goes on to claim heatwaves will become more common, like the one that killed 35,000 people across Europe in 2003.”

“Sounds terrifying — until you actually look at what happened to global temperature after Gore’s film was released. Global temperatures showed little to no warming trend after Gore released his film. In fact, surface temperature data showed no significant global warming for a period of about 15 years, starting in the early 2000s.”   source

We should be good stewards of our environment because, like everything else, it belongs to God.  That doesn't mean taxing our middle class into poverty to subsidize the fear mongers.  The fear that we SHOULD BE spreading is that the return of our Lord can come at any time.  Regardless the condition of this world, you don't want to be left behind in it when the tribulations begin.

[The Barbarian]

That's  a testable assumption... first, there was not a prediction of more hurricanes.  

1 hour ago, RV_Wizard said:

Actually, there were. 

Didn't see that in the literature, but whoever did say that, got it right.   As you see, there was a slight increase in the number of hurricanes over that time.  Notice though, that you sources discuss it happening, not predicting it.    Anyone can do that.   The key is that climatologists accurately predicted the increase in severe storms.

1 hour ago, RV_Wizard said:

Prince Charles warned us all “that he had calculated that we have just 96 months left to save the world,” (2008)

I don't think Charles is a climatologist.  (Barbarian checks) Nope.  He is a scientific crank, though.

1 hour ago, RV_Wizard said:

“Sounds terrifying — until you actually look at what happened to global temperature after Gore’s film was released. Global temperatures showed little to no warming trend after Gore released his film.

Well, let's take a look.   An Inconvenient Truth was released in 2006...

As you see, there was a significant rise in global temperatures since then.   Your source is stuffed with prunes.

Heat waves in Europe?   The data:

Seems like your guys got everything wrong.

[RV_Wizard]

Climate Change on Mars

“My own research strongly parallels Mustard’s conclusion,” says Cabrol. “The evidence is extremely compelling that what we are seeing is very young. There are no superimposed craters on the gullies, or on other young landforms such as mudflows or rock glaciers. In addition, dust is always blowing on Mars. If these features were ancient, then we could expect to see a lot of wind-deposited material in the gullies. But these features are neither filled nor very eroded, so they must be recent.”  source

Not many Suburban's on Mars.  Frankly, though, I am spectacularly disinterested in climate hysteria.  Have at it.

[The Barbarian]

14 minutes ago, RV_Wizard said:

Climate Change on Mars

We're discussing the rise in temperatures on Earth, driven by human increases in CO2 emissions.   Specifically, we're pointing out that your sources got it completely wrong, as the data show.   see above.

16 minutes ago, RV_Wizard said:

There are no superimposed craters on the gullies, or on other young landforms such as mudflows or rock glaciers.

Perhaps that's why scientists say they are young.

It's not like the moon.   There is an atmosphere capable of eroding, and solid water than can be melted by various things.

[The Barbarian]

2 hours ago, RV_Wizard said:

“The world has been chilling sharply for about 20 years,” ecologist Kenneth Watt said in 1970. “If present trends continue, the world will be about 4 degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990 but 11 degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

As you learned, even in the 1970s, most climatologists realized that the Earth was going to be warming up, not cooling:

[Still Alive]

13 hours ago, The Barbarian said:

See my response above.  Look at the graph of over a half-century of storms.   Severe storms are much more frequent in the last 20 years.   As predicted.  If you thought about it, it would be obvious.   Hurricanes are heat engines.    The more heat in the oceans, the stronger the hurricane.

See the data.   No point in denial, now.

Yes, the data It all depends on your source:

 

This is also interesting. from here:https://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/09/u-s-major-landfalling-hurricanes-down-50-since-the-1930s/

Edited March 18 by Still Alive