APRIL 8th PREDICTION

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Solana: It's time for action in Mideast

marion fischel, jerusalem post correspondent, THE JERUSALEM POST Jan. 12, 2007

The Madrid + 15 Peace Conference concluded Friday with a decision to put the peace train back on track during the first half of 2007.

Spanish President Felipe Gonzalez attributed the failure of the Oslo Accords, which were reached before the PLO had recognized Israel, to the fact that the negotiations had moved from the private into the public domain before the agreements had become permanent.

He compared the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference to the present one, saying that in 1991, the language had been "tougher than the present language, the distance between the parties was greater and the hope for achieving a true and lasting peace was less." This time, he said, the language had been more direct and rational.

Gonzalez referred to the 2002 Arab League Initiative as "amazing," saying he could not believe that the international community had not recognized it as an irreversible step. He asked that the US play a part in the peace process without "too much involvement."

"The Arab-Israeli issue may or may not be the epicenter of the problem," said Gonzalez, "but if it is not solved we cannot advance to the other issues."

Gonzalez quoted [former executive chairman of UNMOVIC] Hans Blix as saying that "traditional methods are useless against the new international terrorism and arms proliferation."

"The use of force," said Gonzalez, produces more international terrorism, both present and potential.

EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana, who attended only part of the conference, said that "the moment of action has come."

"It is imperative to continue with a step-by-step approach. [uN Representative] Terje Roed-Larsen has said that the totality is 'too big,' so let us take the Israeli-Palestinian issue first," Solana continued.

Outlining the formula for a successful peace process, Solana, who defined himself as "a friend of Israel and of the Palestinians," said that the process would need to be "comprehensive," and include "outside monitoring."

Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos called upon the international community to "intervene but not impose," adding that "It is not enough to concentrate on the Palestinian situation while the issues with Syria and Lebanon remain blocked."

Moratinos also called for the Arab world to be included in the Quartet, and for unconditional agreements to be reached.

After the conference, Palestinian legislator Hanan Ashrawi told The Jerusalem Post that she was pleased and hopeful with the outcome of the conference.

"I think this is very significant. It is not just symbolic. There is commonality and an agreement on issues. But this is something that must be taken up and run with immediately," she said.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid...Article/Printer

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Hurricane sweeps across Europe

POSTED: 8:02 a.m. EST, January 18, 2007

BERLIN, Germany (Reuters) -- Germans were told to stay indoors and many schools across the country closed early on Thursday as a rare hurricane bore down on the country, cutting air traffic at its biggest airport by half.

Germany's DWD meteorogical service said the storm "Kyrill" could generate winds of up to 180 km/h (112 mph) in high and exposed areas and as much as 130 km/h in lower-lying regions.

"What's unusual about this storm is that it will affect the whole country and not just certain zones," said Christoph Hartmann, a spokesman for the DWD in Offenbach.

The northwest of Germany would be the first to feel the full impact of Kyrill from early afternoon, before the storm swept across the rest of the country and moved eastwards into Poland, the Czech Republic and northern Austria, the DWD said.

Rain would likely continue into the weekend in affected areas, as the storm's force gradually dissipated, it added.

As Germans were warned on the radio and television to keep their cars away from trees and to stay indoors, authorities in states stretching across the length and breadth of the country said many schools were closing early due to Kyrill's arrival.

Rescue services around Germany said they had mobilized extra staff to prepare for potential flooding and destructive winds.

German airline Deutsche Lufthansa said it expected numerous flight cancellations and delays on Thursday, while Frankfurt airport said takeoffs and landings were cut by half.

Germany was not the only country hit. British and French rescue services rushed to pick up sailors forced to abandon a container ship after it began sinking in stormy waters in the Channel.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/01/18...reut/index.html

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Last update - 02:08 22/01/2007

Solana shocked at growth of Israeli settlements in West Bank

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana urged Israel to freeze West Bank settlements and stop constructing the security fence. He hoped "the realities on the ground" brought about by Jewish settlement building would not "prevent a two-state solution from happening."

Solana said he was struck during a tour Saturday of West Bank Arab towns on Jerusalem's eastern slopes by the growth of settlements and the barrier cutting into land that Palestinians want for a state.

"I had the opportunity to make a tour along the eastern part of Jerusalem and go to Abu Dis and its surroundings. You get really very shocked every time you go and you see the situation worse, the wall is more extended and settlements are more extended," Solana told reporters in Amman.

Under the U.S.-backed road map, Israel was supposed to halt settlement construction in the West Bank. The Palestinians were also required to dismantle militant groups, a step they have yet to take.

The EU official said there was a "window of opportunity" that the international community and the parties to the conflict should seize to revive talks that collapsed in 2001 and have remained deadlocked since Hamas took power.

"We think there is an opportunity now, an opportunity that should not be let go by to open the political process that should end up with the resolution of the conflict," he said.

Solana said a new resolve was emerging among the Quartet of Middle East mediators the United States, United Nations, Russia and the European Union that raised hopes for progress when a planned meeting takes place in Washington on February 2.

"The political will is being constructed. It's been too long in which the suffering of people has been very deep ... and the moment we think has arrived to change the approach," he said.

Solana: All sides have 'political will' to restart peace process

Earlier on Sunday, Solana said the time was opportune for relaunching peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, thanks to the existence of "political will" on the part of all players he met recently.

Judging by "the talks I have had with different actors in the United States and in the region, I think the political will is there for moving the peace process," Solana told a press conference before leaving for Israel on the last leg of a regional tour.

Solana met Sunday with King Abdullah on the prospects of pushing ahead the peace negotiations. He earlier visited Egypt and the Palestinian Authority.

According to a royal court statement, King Abdullah "underscored the importance of the EU upgrading its role in efforts aimed at reinvigorating the peace process and ensuring the availability of appropriate circumstances for resuming negotiations."

Abdullah also urged a "reactivation of the Quartet's role in the forthcoming stage with a view to working out peace that will be based on UN resolutions, the Arab peace initiative and the setting up of an independent Palestinian state" that lives with peace with Israel, the statement said.

Solana said that with the availability of political will, "the approach" to the Middle East conflict should now be changed from "a mood of crisis management to a kind of solution."

He expressed hope that a meeting to be held by the Middle East Quartet in New York on February 2 would be crucial in terms efforts aimed at pushing the peace negotiations forward between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Asked about a planned meeting between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas politburo chief Khalid Mashaal in Damascus, Solana said the EU would continue to "respect what President Abbas decides to do."

Solana indicated that the EU and regional governments supported a "final status solution" between Israel and the Palestinians, who rejected recently a proposal by the U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for setting up a Palestinian state with interim borders.

Solana said that he planned "to sound out" Israeli leaders on this issue when he met with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert later Sunday. Solana's visit to Jerusalem will include talks with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.

Solana arrived in Amman on Sunday morning for a meeting with King Abdullah to discuss the prospects of relaunching peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, officials said.

Solana was also scheduled to meet with Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdul Ilah Khatib to discuss efforts by the Quartet of Middle East peace brokers to spur the stalled talks, the officials said.

Jordanian leaders expressed hope the meeting would help kickstart the peace process.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/815971.html

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New rules for the Middle East game

By Raanan Eliaz

The current discussions about the future of American foreign policy in the Middle East touch directly upon Israel-U.S. relations. U.S. policymakers, however, have not yet given enough consideration to the unprecedented weight that the European Union increasingly exerts in the region. In the case of Israel as well as on other U.S. fronts, no durable progress is reachable without the agreement, not to say the active involvement, of the slowly uniting Europe.

A historic window of opportunity may be brought on by the development of the EU over the past decades, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East to include a nuclear threat, and the volatility of the U.S. role in the region. In view of this, the United States should realize the strategic value of gradually integrating Israel into the European Union. Although a full membership is not in the cards at the moment, the EU becoming Israel's second closest strategic ally, alongside the U.S., is in everybody's best interests. Over the next decade or two, relations between the U.S., the EU and Israel should be progressively formulated anew.

Despite America's significant role in facilitating Israel's just struggle to survive, it has failed to ensure the county's lasting longevity and independence. Regardless of the Bush administration's intentions, Israel's strategic position has deteriorated on multiple fronts. It is still the most powerful in terms of military might, but present day Israel has to rely on America more than ever before in order to secure its political standing and its military superiority. Most tragically, Israel's peace offerings of its scarce land to Egyptian and Palestinian neighbors have not led it to better integration into the Middle East. The current Iranian nuclear threat only materializes a wider, existential fragility that Israel has failed to eliminate.

Although the U.S. still has the power to exert a unique leverage that no other outside party can, it is becoming clear that in order to stabilize the Middle East, the U.S. simply cannot go it alone. Increasingly, the EU complements and in some cases, assumes, the U.S.'s traditional third party role in the region. For example, on the macro level, the EU took on a leading role in the Middle East Quartet and as chief negotiator with Iran, and on the micro level, the EU has an active presence in southern Lebanon and Gaza, and has, on several occasions, attempted to revive negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

Europe has a clear interest in stabilizing its backyard and it can offer incentives and exert leverages the U.S. cannot. Nevertheless, the dialogue between Israel and the EU lacks strategic vision and sincere willingness to work together. In dealing with Europe, Israel is preoccupied with planning preventive measures instead of embarking proactively in shaping its future. The EU, still heavily engaged in solving internal crises, cannot follow through its own foreign policy initiatives. Only the U.S. can help both parties to "shift gears."

Such paradigmatic change in course will involve the creation of a durable transatlantic Middle East policy that will introduce new rules to the region's game. With the required massive financial, political and military investment, all pragmatic Arab countries would be encouraged to work together with Israel toward an agreed-upon settlement. Creative solutions may include offering NATO-like regional security guarantees, the establishment of sustainable economic incentives, and multilateral territorial swaps.

It is doubtful whether the current U.S. administration, alongside weak leaderships in the Middle East and an unfocused EU, will be able to promote such an ambitious agenda. But in order for this positive dramatic shift to assume shape over the next generation, now is the time to start preparing the ground.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/815531.html

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EU expecting role in Israel's security

Top diplomatic sources say secret talks held on handing West Bank to Abbas

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Posted: January 24, 2007 / 1:00 a.m. Eastern

By Aaron Klein

JERUSALEM

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Olmert's party proposes handing West Bank to Europe

Follows WND reports of secret talks to evacuate strategic territory under EU supervision

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Posted: January 25, 2007 - 9:56 a.m. Eastern

By Aaron Klein

JERUSALEM

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Friends of EU constitution defend treaty's 'fundamental content'

26.01.2007 - 20:09 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

EUOBSERVER / MADRID - A pro-EU constitution gathering in Madrid has called for a revised version of the charter to not go "below" the existing compromise, while expressing "frustration" at the lack of alternative solutions put forward by countries that have failed to ratify it.

The EU constitution as it stands is "the result of complex and difficult negotiations" which reflects "delicate balances bringing together diverse political, social, economic and legal interests," stated delegates from the 18 countries that have already ratified the charter plus Ireland and Portugal on Friday (26 January).

The group stated that any new version of the text should "respect its fundamental content and its balances," while acknowledging that certain modifications to the constitution could prove necessary following the negative 2005 votes in France and the Netherlands.

"Obviously we are aware that as every human construction, even this treaty can be improved," suggested Alberto Navarro, Spain's Europe minister, explaining that new challenges have come up since 2004, when the constitution was signed.

"If needed, we could add something about climate change, immigration or energy

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Europeans fear US attack on Iran as nuclear row intensifies

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EU backs Syria's aim to regain Golan Heights: Solana

Wed Mar 14, 8:22 AM ET

DAMASUCUS (Reuters) - The European Union supports Syria's goal of regaining the occupied Golan Heights from Israel, the EU foreign policy chief said after meeting President Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday.

"We would like to work as much as possible to see your country Syria recuperate the territory taken in 1967," Javier Solana told a joint news conference with Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem.

Syria has made it clear that its cooperation to help end violence in Iraq was tied to Western, especially U.S., backing for its peaceful campaign to regain the Golan Heights, which Israel occupied during the Middle East war four decades ago.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070314/wl_nm/...3OlMAowMxp0bBAF

[MorningGlory]

EU backs Syria's aim to regain Golan Heights: Solana

Wed Mar 14, 8:22 AM ET

DAMASUCUS (Reuters) - The European Union supports Syria's goal of regaining the occupied Golan Heights from Israel, the EU foreign policy chief said after meeting President Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday.

"We would like to work as much as possible to see your country Syria recuperate the territory taken in 1967," Javier Solana told a joint news conference with Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem.

Syria has made it clear that its cooperation to help end violence in Iraq was tied to Western, especially U.S., backing for its peaceful campaign to regain the Golan Heights, which Israel occupied during the Middle East war four decades ago.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070314/wl_nm/...3OlMAowMxp0bBAF

Solana isn't very eloquent for such an educated man. "Recuperate" is the wrong word; the Syrians seek to "recoup" the Golan Heights. And, just for the record, the Golan Heights only became part of Syria when the British mandate ended in the middle east. The Syrians immediately turned the region into a staging area for sneak attacks on Israel. The territory was captured fairly by Israel as spoils of war so it follows that, if Syria wants it back they should 'recoup' it the same way they lost it. Methinks they probably don't want to go that route again though.