APRIL 8th PREDICTION

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EU election monitors face risks in Palestine

03.01.2006 - 10:00 CET | By Andrew Rettman

Thirty two EU election monitors have begun work in Palestine, despite escalating violence and the prospect that the 25 January vote could be postponed.

Reuters reports that the officials arrived on Monday (2 January), with four going to Gaza and 28 to the West Bank to set up monitoring centres and talk to candidates.

Official campaigning for the parliamentary elections began on Tuesday, with a further 128 EU monitors as well as 30 MEPs set to arrive in the region before 25 January.

Arabic media, such as the Qatar-based Peninsula, report that gunmen have specifically threatened to kidnap EU staff.

The news comes after the kidnappings of several British and Italian nationals in the past few days, as well as shoot outs between rival Palestinian families, Israeli missile fire and mini-rebellions by the Palestinian police force.

On Monday, 200 police stormed government offices in Rafah, prompting police chief Ala Hosni to say he is unable to protect the elections under present circumstances.

Last week, EU border officials had to temporarily flee a customs post after a similar attack by angry policemen.

MEP unfazed

The head of the EU monitoring mission, Belgian socialist MEP Veronique de Keyser, told Reuters she plans to head out to Gaza on Wednesday to see how bad the situation is.

"I must show the commitment of the EU so it would be a bad sign not to go to Gaza," she said, adding "My main concern is safety and security.... We would never deploy if there

Edited January 4, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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EU draws up Adriatic gas plan after Russia-Ukraine fiasco

05.01.2006 - 09:55 CET | By Andrew Rettman

The EU might build a new gas pipeline on the Adriatic Sea coast in order to ease reliance on Russia following the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute.

Hungarian economics minister Janos Koka told news wires about the plan following a meeting of EU energy experts in Brussels on Wednesday (4 December).

Under the scheme, tankers would deliver liquid gas from the Middle East and North Africa to an Adriatic region entry point into Europe.

A feasibility study is due by March.

The EU experts' meeting was orginally tabled for May, but was brought forward after Russia turned off gas supplies to transit state Ukraine on Sunday causing sharp drops in deliveries to the EU.

Moscow and Kiev struck a price deal in the small hours of Wednesday morning, but some EU politicians are sceptical if the accord will hold.

The EU currently relies on Russia for around 25 percent of its gas consumption.

"We have to draw consequences from what happened, not just on gas but also regarding oil and electricity", Austrian ecnomics minister Martin Bartenstein said according to PAP and IHT.

"Dependency on Russia should be reduced", he added.

The EU energy group also asked the European Commission to produce a green paper on energy policy coordination in time for the Austrian presidency's first summit in March.

The paper is likely to focus on uniform counting methods for member states' gas reserves, concerted action on new supply routes, such as the Turkish 'Nabucco' pipeline, nuclear and renewable energy and energy conservation.

Polish daily Rzeczpospolita reports that all member states agreed on Wednesday to tackle energy at EU level, including previous opponents of the idea such as the UK.

"Europe needs a clear and more collective policy on the security of our energy supply," EU energy commisssioner Andris Piebalgs indicated.

The Austrian presidency stressed that Russia has been a "reliable" EU energy partner for over 40 years.

But signs of concern also came from Berlin, with a German government spokesman telling media that energy will be a big topic when chancellor Angela Merkel visits Moscow on 16 January.

http://euobserver.com/9/20628

Edited January 5, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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Slovak-Vatican abortion deal criticised by EU experts

05.01.2006 - 09:54 CET | By Mark Beunderman

Slovakia has been challenged by EU legal experts over an agreement with the Vatican, aimed at reducing the number of abortions in the country.

The Guardian reports that Bratislava has come under EU fire for signing a 2003 draft treaty with the Roman Catholic church, allowing doctors in catholic hospitals to refuse to carry out abortions.

The EU

Edited January 5, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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EU troops kill wife of Bosnian war crimes suspect

06.01.2006 - 09:48 CET | By Teresa K

Edited January 9, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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Austrian presidency to revive EU constitution debate

09.01.2006 - 09:52 CET | By Mark Beunderman

Austrian leader Wolfgang Schussel has said his country, currently at the helm of the EU, is aiming to resuscitate the debate on the EU constitution.

Mr Schussel noted on Sunday (8 January) on German television according to Austrian media "We have planned to revive the discussion on the constitution."

He added "A new constitution would be better then the quite fragmented conglomerate of many texts that we have today."

The Austrian chancellor did not specify whether his country will press for the constitution text as agreed by EU leaders in June 2004 or for a different solution.

The 2004 treaty was shelved last year following negative referendums in France and the Netherlands.

Austrian officials had earlier indicated that Vienna will try and lay the foundation for a new consensus between member states supporting further ratification of the constitution as well as those that have said farewell to the treaty.

Vienna wants to achieve a "roadmap" for the constitution at the EU leaders' summit in June.

As a sign that the current constitutional text is not untouchable for the Austrian presidency, Mr Schussel said on 31 December that deregulation and subsidiarity (the principle that political decisions should be taken at the lowest possible level) should be "taken seriously."

This remark was echoed over the weekend by Austria

Edited January 9, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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EU trio to discuss reaction to Iran nuclear move

11.01.2006 - 09:54 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

Britain, Germany and France are meeting on Thursday (12 January) to consider their reaction to Iran's resumption of its nuclear programme.

The emergency session of the three foreign ministers, representing the EU in talks with Iran, comes after Tehran removed UN seals from equipment in its atomic research center in Nataz on Tuesday.

The middle eastern country is planning to break seals on two other connected sites today.

The EU leaders are considering referring the country to the UN security council, with prospects of imposing international sanctions down the line.

"This is a matter which has to be resolved by peaceful means, but it will involve a good deal of diplomatic and other pressure on Iran," British foreign minister Jack Straw told the BBC.

Mr Straw also expressed regret over the negative outcome of the EU's negotiations with Tehran.

"We have shown our good faith in Europe over the last two and a half years. I do not believe we could have done more to reach out to the Iranians," he said.

The US, previously sceptical about the Europeans' efforts, also sent a strong warning, with the White House spokesman hinting that Iran was risking a "major escalation" of its stand-off with the international community.

Washington is currently coordinating further action with the European players, European media report.

Small-scaled but unpredictable

Iran has resumed its nuclear programme on a small scale, ostensibly for research purposes.

The country's officials argue that they would use the uranium enrichment process only to produce nuclear fuel, but international observers are concerned the scheme could lead to developing material for nuclear warheads.

Iran's critics point out that its credibility over the atomic project was seriously damaged in 2003 when the UN nuclear watchdog reported that Tehran had hidden its uranium enrichment programme for 18 years.

The country is also accused of continued non-compliance on nuclear safeguard obligations.

''It is also why the international community has sought objective guarantees from Iran that the regime is not developing nuclear weapons under the guise of a civilian program,'' the White House spokesman pointed out on Tuesday.

http://euobserver.com/9/20653

Edited January 11, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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The Hague says constitution is 'dead'

11.01.2006 - 17:33 CET | By Mark Beunderman

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The Dutch foreign minister Bernard Bot has said the EU constitution is "dead" for the Netherlands, rejecting EU leaders' recent pleas for a resuscitation of the charter.

After meeting his Austrian counterpart Ursula Plassnik in The Hague, Mr Bot stated on Wednesday (11 January) "we have discussed the constitution, which for the Netherlands is dead," according to press reports.

Austria, which currently holds the EU presidency, aims at a revival of the treaty, with its leader Wolfgang Schussel declaring on Monday "the constitution is not dead. It is in the middle of a ratification process."

But Mr Bot poured cold water over these hopes, reiterating that it is out of the question that the Netherlands will ratify the constitution.

Dutch voters overwhelmingly rejected the text in a referendum in June last year, following a French "no" three days earlier - and the ratification of every single member state is necessary for the treaty to enter into force.

"No" forever?

Supporters of the constitution have drawn hope from the fact that technically, The Hague's refusal to ratify the treaty only applies to the current cabinet period, with parliamentary elections due in May 2007.

Talking to EUobserver on Tuesday, European communication commissioner Margot Wallstrom asked "is this a no forever or can it still be changed", hinting at a change of the Dutch and French political leadership next year, with France holding a 2007 presidential poll.

But Dutch insiders point out that it would be political suicide for any politician to raise the issue, even after the elections.

The Labour party led by Wouter Bos, which is tipped to win the poll, has become markedly more euro-critical following the constitution referendum.

No quick solutions

Mr Bot also said that "quick solutions" cannot save the constitution, nor can "cherry-picking" from the text.

The comment comes after concrete, though contradictory proposals from Berlin and France aimed at reviving parts or the entirety of the charter.

French president Jacques Chirac has urged closer co-operation in individual policy areas covered by the constitution, while German leader Angela Merkel has proposed attaching a declaration on the "social dimension of Europe" in a bid to save the charter in its entirety.

Lousewies van der Laan, a liberal Dutch parliamentarian and former member of the European Parliament, on Tuesday attacked Ms Merkel's constitutional drive, asking "what part of the no is it that you don't understand?"

Ms Van der Laan, who herself supports the constitution, termed Ms Merkel's and other proposals to resuscitate the constitution "deeply offensive to the people who said no", adding "this gives people the impression that they are not being taken seriously, that Europe is being constructed over their heads".

Wallstrom wants longer reflection time

Commissioner Wallstrom yesterday signalled the same concern, saying that attempts at "constitutional engineering" are "dangerous," arguing that Europe should take more time to listen to its citizens first.

According to the commissioner, the so-called reflection period, agreed by EU leaders last June after the French and Dutch referendums, should be extended and "ideally last until the next European Parliament elections" in 2009.

Until that time, no concrete efforts towards ratifying the constitution should be taken, she said.

Dutch subsidiarity initiative

The Dutch support the idea of a longer reflection period, and intend to use it for the further promotion of the idea of "subsidiarity", a Dutch official said.

The subsidiarity principle, enshrined in the EU treaty, states that the EU shall only take action when action at member state level is ineffective.

According to research, one key reason why the Dutch voted "no" to the constitution is that they believe the EU interferes too much in national politics.

The official hinted The Hague might put forward concrete proposals to better apply the principle as part of the reflection period.

http://euobserver.com/9/20659

Edited January 11, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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France and Germany at odds over constitution

11.01.2006 - 09:54 CET | By Mark Beunderman

Fresh proposals by French president Jacques Chirac to ratify only single aspects of the EU constitution have put him at odds with German chancellor Angela Merkel, who has reiterated that constitutional cherry-picking "does not work."

In a speech before diplomats on Tuesday (10 January), Mr Chirac presented his view on how to break the EU

Edited January 11, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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EU wakes up to global energy pressures

12.01.2006 - 09:41 CET | By Andrew Rettman

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Energy commissioner Andris Piebalgs said energy supply has begun to play a key role in EU foreign policy in the past nine months, responding to criticisms of inaction from Polish MEP Bronislaw Geremek on Wednesday (11 January).

"Now, in external relations, energy has moved up the agenda", he said. "We clearly understand that energy is a priority, it's always been a priority, but now it's never missing off the agenda."

He indicated member states are "united" in thinking the EU needs a common energy policy on the model of the common foreign and security policy.

The European Commission will "steer" the EU toward this goal at the Austrian presidency's first summit in March, he added, warning that Europe faces "a major crisis in energy" in the next 20 years unless something is done.

"If we don't agree on some rules, we will clearly end up with very bad scenarios," the Latvian commissioner said.

EU energy dependency hit the headlines this month after the Russia-Ukraine gas price dispute saw gas supplies to some EU states plummet overnight.

The EU imports about 50 percent of its gas and 75 percent of oil, with the world facing fierce competition for resources as global consumption soars.

Russia and China seize the initiative

Mr Piebalgs made his remarks at an academic debate about Royal Dutch Shell's global outlook to 2025, hosted by think-tank Friends of Europe at the Bibliotheque Solvay in Brussels.

His comments came in response to liberal MEP and former Polish foreign minister Bronislaw Geremek, who said Russia's decision to turn off gas to Ukraine on 1 January posed questions about the EU's lack of response to energy threats so far.

"Up till now, the commission was unable to formulate such an energy security policy, I mean security from dependence," Mr Geremek indicated.

He said Russia plans to regain its status as a superpower on the basis of its energy wealth, while the rise of China means that by 2025 the world's biggest economy could also be a non-democratic state.

In the meantime, an ageing European society and its enervated political community is doing little to influence the trend Mr Geremek argued.

"Europe is the place with the main soft power in the world, with its tradition of democracy, but it has been unable until now to create a policy in the field of energy security," he stated.

Fool's paradise

"I think we've been living in a fool's paradise, a paradise where energy policy was off the agenda," former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt said at the debate.

He pointed out that 50 percent of the world's daily traded oil is shipped via the strait of Hormuz bordering Iran.

"The almighty, or whoever was responsible for the allocation of our energy resources, was very frustrating, putting them in extremely hard places and locations, with the exception of Norway," Mr Bildt quipped.

http://euobserver.com/9/20663

Edited January 12, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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EU calls for Iran's UNSC referral

1/12/2006 3:00:00 PM GMT

Foreign Ministers from the UK, France and Germany said that talks with Iran had reached an impasse and agreed to refer Tehran

Edited January 12, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER