APRIL 8th PREDICTION

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EU and China square up for shoe battle

13.01.2006 - 10:09 CET | By Teresa K

Edited January 13, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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Sarkozy wants freeze on enlargement and slimmer EU charter

13.01.2006 - 09:56 CET | By Lisbeth Kirk

French interior minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, has launched his campaign to become the next president of France by calling for a freeze on further EU enlargement, while proposing a short version of the EU constitution.

In a new year's address on Thursday (12 January), attended by 500 journalists, he said the first part of the proposed EU constitution should be revived.

This part, setting out European decision-making procedures, could be adopted by members of the French parliament, without a new consultation of French voters in a referendum.

A majority of French people rejected the EU constitution in a referendum in June 2005.

"Departing from the initial text of the European constitution, we should establish a shorter text, based on the first part of the treaty and with the only aim to organise the functioning of the EU 25," he said.

EU enlargement should be put on hold until the bloc has agreed a watered down version of the constitution, he added.

But negotiations with Romania and Bulgaria had progressed so far that it would be inappropriate to stop them.

The larger EU nations, such as France, Germany, the UK, Spain, Italy and Poland should form a "strategic partnership" and play a genuine role as the engine of the EU, he said.

Nicolas Sarkozy, who is also president of France

Edited January 13, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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Pressure mounts on Iran as US backs EU move for UN action

13.01.2006 - 10:28 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

Washington has expressed its full support for an EU proposal to refer Iran to the UN Security Council over nuclear research, while Russia is hinting at a change from its previous pro-Iran stance.

But Tehran seems to be unfazed by the latest developments, warning that it will block UN inspectors' access to its nuclear facilities if the UN imposes sanctions.

The escalation of the dispute comes after Iran resumed its nuclear project this week, while still ostensibly participating in EU negotiations which rule out such an option.

Tehran claims it needs the nuclear programme for energy production, but the US and EU fear it could be used to develop weapons.

"These provocative actions by the Iranian regime have shattered the basis for negotiation," said US foreign affairs chief Condoleeza Rice in a statement, following the meeting of her French, German and British counterparts in Berlin on Thursday (12 January).

The EU trio, represented by foreign ministers Philippe Douste-Blazy, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and Jack Straw, with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana in attendance, said they were calling for an emergency session of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to refer the issue to the top UN forum.

"We believe the time has now come for the Security Council to become involved to reinforce the authority of IAEA resolutions," the ministers stated.

They added that it is important for the stability of the region and the credibility of the global non-proliferation system to "respond firmly to this challenge."

"This is not a dispute between Iran and Europe, but between Iran and the whole international community," the ministers said in their common declaration.

Both the EU leaders and Ms Rice made clear they were committed to resolve the dispute by diplomatic means.

Meanwhile, Russia has not ruled out its support for a UN Security Council referral, with foreign minister Sergei Lavrov's comments hinting at a change in Russian policy on the issue.

"We are convinced Iran would do well to renew the moratorium [on nuclear research]," Lavrov stated, Polish media say.

Russia was one of the key IAEA players standing in the way of the UN security council move last year.

But Moscow added that not all diplomatic steps have been exhausted yet, with similar remarks coming from UN secretary general Kofi Annan.

Mr Annan told the BBC he was hoping a solution could still be found through the IAEA, highlighting that Iran's nuclear chief negotiator had assured him Tehran remained "interested in serious and constructive negotiations, but within a time-frame."

The issue will be also discussed by US president George W. Bush and German chancellor Angela Merkel during her visit to Washington starting today.

http://euobserver.com/9/20673

Edited January 13, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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Iran Threatens to End Nuclear Cooperation

By ALI AKBAR DAREINI, Associated Press Writer

Fri Jan 13, 6:39 PM ET

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran threatened Friday to end surprise inspections and other cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog if it is referred to the U.N. Security Council over its nuclear program, and the president vowed his country won't be intimidated by sanctions.

Iran's tough line came as Europe and the United States were trying to build support for hauling Iran before the Security Council. They faced resistance from China, which warned the move could only escalate the confrontation.

In Washington, President Bush and German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged U.N. intervention. The world needs to "send a common message to Iran that their behavior ... is unacceptable," Bush said.

An end to U.N. inspections would be a dramatic breakdown in the already faltering diplomatic attempts at reining in Iran's nuclear ambitions. The United States and many in Europe fear Iran aims to develop nuclear weapons.

Iran insists its program is peaceful, intended only to produce electricity. But it has insisted on its right to conduct uranium enrichment, a process that can produce reactor fuel or material for a nuclear bomb.

After Iran resumed research work on enrichment this week, Britain, France and Germany issued a tough statement Thursday declaring 2 1/2 years of tense negotiations with Tehran at a "dead end" and urging the Security Council to intervene.

But on Friday, the three countries carefully avoided talk of sanctions, with diplomats privately conceding there was little appetite for tough economic sanctions, such as restricting oil and gas sales

Edited January 14, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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MEPs call for EU action to protect homosexuals

17.01.2006 - 09:39 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

EUOBSERVER / STRASBOURG

Edited January 17, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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Polish ruling party says EU constitution 'dead'

16.01.2006 - 17:25 CET | By Andrew Rettman

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The Polish ruling party, Law and Justice, believes Vienna is "wasting time" trying to revive the "dead" EU constitution and should focus on more pressing matters such as the services directive instead.

"The constitution must be ratified by all. The decisions of France and the Netherlands closed the matter," Law and Justice party spokesman Adam Bielan told EUobserver on Monday (16 January).

Senior party member Artur Zawisza indicated that Poland's Law and Justice-led government has not made any official statement on the subject because "it is busy with real issues, not subjects of debate that have no practical chance of coming about."

Their remarks follow recent statements by the Austrian EU presidency that the charter is still alive despite negative referendums in France and the Netherlands last year.

Germany, Portugal and Slovenia share Vienna's positive attitude, while French president Jacques Chirac has suggested bits of the constitution could be salvaged and pushed ahead.

But the Netherlands is opposed to any revival while Spain, which has ratified the text, says it should not be changed.

The dream of a severed head

Mr Bielan said Austria should "not waste time on an old document, they should concentrate on creating a new one," while calling Mr Chirac's idea "the dreams of a severed head."

He explained that Polish leaders are more interested in Germany and France's thinking on the services directive and EU energy supply than the constitution.

Law and Justice says the EU would be better off with a single legal document, but that it will take "years" to draw up any new constitution.

Mr Bielan indicated a new charter should be drafted by member states at intergovernmental level rather than via a convention of national experts as before.

The process should begin with gathering fresh public opinion to help heal the "rift" between people at large and Europe's political elite - the cause of the negative referendums in the first place, according to Mr Bielan.

Meanwhile, Mr Zawisza warned that Warsaw would reject any attempt to move away from the Nice treaty structure on voting rights among member states.

The Nice treaty gives Poland more voting power compared to the EU constitution, which tied voting more strictly to population size.

http://euobserver.com/9/20688

Edited January 17, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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Merkel and Putin see eye to eye on pipeline and Iran

16.01.2006 - 18:18 CET | By Andrew Rettman

German chancellor Angela Merkel defended plans to build a gas pipeline with Russia on her first official visit to Moscow on Monday (16 January), while Russia joined the EU and US in condemning Iran over nuclear research.

"The northern pipeline is an investment in Europe's energy security. It is important that Europeans explain to the Baltic states and Poland that this project is not aimed at anybody," Ms Merkel said, Polish news agency PAP reports.

The pipeline deal was brokered by Ms Merkel's predecessor, Gerhard Schroder, linking St Petersburg to Greifswald under the Baltic Sea by 2010.

Poland and Lithuania have complained about the project, saying it was made "over their heads" and undermines previous land-based gas pipeline projects running through their territories.

Gas made news earlier this month when Russia cut supplies to transit state Ukraine in a price row, with deliveries to Europe nosediving the following day.

The dispute with Ukraine continues to fester, but Mr Putin said on Monday that "Gas transit to Europe is now in no way linked to gas supplies to Ukraine."

The EU imports some 25 percent of its gas from Russia, but Germany is even more dependent, on 30 percent.

Russia takes western side on Iran

Mr Putin also took sides with the EU and US on the subject of Iran's nuclear reaserch after Tehran resumed uranium enrichment research last week.

"The positions of Russia, Germany, the EU and the US are very close,'' he said according to Bloomberg.

But he continued to urge caution adding "In every situation on the subject of the Iranian problem we must proceed carefully, without taking sudden, erroneous steps."

German, UK, French, US, Chinese and Russian diplomats met in London at the same time as the Russo-German summit in Moscow to debate the topic.

AFX cites European diplomats in the UK as saying that the six powers will amost certainly push for Iran to be referred to the UN Security Council at the next meeting of the UN's nuclear watchdog, the IAEA in February.

"The Russians are agreed now. They have changed their position," AFXs' diplomtic source said. "The Chinese are still a little hesitant, but effectively a Security Council referral is now a done deal. It will go to the Security Council."

The western powers wanted to refer Iran to the UN Security Council last year already, due to fears Tehran's energy research masked nuclear bomb ambitions, but Russia and China blocked the move.

Human rights also mentioned

Ms Merkel also said that she raised the subject of Chechnya "openly and in detail" with Mr Putin.

She said she would push for the EU to deliver development aid to the region, adding that "the situation in Chechnya and the northern Caucasus are not subjects in which we were able to immediately find a common language."

Russia has faced criticism on human rights grounds in recent weeks, with NGOs such as Amnesty International worried over a draft new bill that could limit their activities in the country.

Last week, Ms Merkel signalled that she might pull away from Germany's previous "friendship" with Russia into a cooler "strategic partnership" instead.

But the pair have tabled two visits for Mr Putin to Germany later this year and two more trips by Ms Merkel to Russia.

http://euobserver.com/9/20689

Edited January 17, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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EU trio drafts resolution referring Iran to UN

17.01.2006 - 09:56 CET | By Mark Beunderman

The EU's big three have taken the first steps to refer Iran to the UN security council over its nuclear program, with Russian president Vladimir Putin indicating he is prepared to back the move - but Beijing is not on board yet.

Britain, Germany and France, handling the Iran dossier on behalf of the EU, on Monday (16 January) presented a request to US, Russian and Chinese diplomats to hold an emergency meeting of the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on 2 February, according to media reports.

The IAEA board should vote on an EU resolution referring Iran, which resumed its nuclear research last week, to the UN security council.

The UN body could impose international sanctions against Iran, if it fails to comply with its demands.

The row over Tehran's nuclear enrichment programme, which western states fear is aimed at developing nuclear weapons, escalated after Iran removed IAEA seals from nuclear plants last week.

The move has sparked a re-alignment of the position of Russia, which holds veto power in the UN security council.

Moscow, which has big stakes in Iran's nuclear scheme, was one of the key IAEA players standing in the way of the UN security council option last year, instead offering to enrich uranium for the Iranians on Russian soil.

But Russian president Vladimir Putin indicated on Monday after talks with German chancellor Angela Merkel "As for Russia, and Germany and our European partners and the United States, we have very close positions on the Iranian problem."

The Russian leader also warned against "abrupt, erroneous steps", adding "We must move very carefully in this area."

China, which has so far also blocked UN referral, indicated last week it believed such a move could "complicate the issue."

Wang Guangya, the country

Edited January 17, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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Solana: Iran nuclear issue will reach UNSC

Tuesday, January 17, 2006 -

Edited January 18, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

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Iran Moves to Protect Assets From U.N.

By ALI AKBAR DAREINI, Associated Press Writer

Fri Jan 20, 2:56 PM ET

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran is withdrawing its foreign currency deposits from European banks, the central bank governor said Friday, a move designed to protect its assets from U.N. sanctions that might be imposed over the country's nuclear program.

How strong will the U.S. dollar be in 2006?

The Islamic republic also confirmed it is pushing for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut overall production, signaling it could seek to use its oil riches in the standoff with the West.

Iran's Central Bank Gov. Ebrahim Sheibani told reporters that Iran was transferring the deposits to an undisclosed location, the semi-official Iranian Students News Agency reported. "We transfer the foreign exchange reserves to wherever we deem fit," Sheibani was quoted by ISNA as saying.

Sheibani would not say how much money was involved and it was not clear whether Iran's investments in Europe would be affected.

Oil Ministry spokeswoman Souzan Shakourzadeh also said Iran wants OPEC to cut its overall production ahead of an the expected fall in demand for oil in the second quarter of this year.

Shakourzadeh told The Associated Press she was not in a position to say by how much Iran thought OPEC should reduce its production. Iran pumps about 4 million barrels of oil a day, making it the second-largest producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia.

Crude oil prices rose above $67 on Friday amid concern over the Iranian nuclear dispute, unrest in Nigeria and the al-Qaida threat of terrorist attacks in the United States. It is feared that oil prices could surge much higher

Edited January 21, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER