APRIL 8th PREDICTION

[rollinTHUNDER]

Ukraine's future lies with Europe, says new president

24.01.2005 - 10:00 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

The newly-inaugurated president of Ukraine, Victor Yushchenko, has already said that his country

[rollinTHUNDER]

No referendum on Constitution in Belgium

24.01.2005 - 09:49 CET | By Lisbeth Kirk

The Belgian liberal prime minister, Guy Verhofstadt, has lost the political backing needed to have a referendum on the European Constitution, according to Belgian media reports.

Over the weekend, his social-liberal coalition partner, the Spirit party, made a political u-turn and decided on Sunday to drop its previous support for a referendum on the Constitution.

The Flemish Spirit party defended its move by saying it was concerned that the referendum would be hijacked by the far-right Vlaams Belang party campaigning against Turkish membership of the EU.

The Chairman of the Spirit party Geert Lambert said nobody is speaking of the Constitution but only of eventual Turkish EU membership, according to Le Soir.

Deprived of support from the Spirit party, Mr Verhofstadt no longer has a majority in the parliament which supports holding a referendum.

The Belgian opposition socialist party is also opposed to a referendum.

UK referendum

And across the Channel, the ratification of the Constitution by the UK Parliament could be delayed, according to the Financial Times.

The bill to ratify the constitutional treaty and pave the way for a referendum is not now expected to become law until December or January.

The referendum is expected to take place in May or June next year.

http://euobserver.com/?sid=9&aid=18219

[rollinTHUNDER]

Turkey issue could threaten

[rollinTHUNDER]

Romania encouraged to work hard to join EU in 2007

24.01.2005 - 18:25 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Romania is on the right track but hard work still needs to be done if the country is to join the EU in 2007, the Commission has told Bucharest.

"I gave my phone number to Mr Prime Minister, so he can call me whenever there's a problem," European Commission President Jose Manuel Durao Barroso told journalists on Monday (24 January).

His comments came after his first meeting with Calin Popescu-Tariceanu, the head of the centre-right coalition government since December.

Romania, which is lagging behind its neighbour Bulgaria in its quest for EU membership, has a several tasks ahead of it.

It is supposed to sign the accession treaty in April. A month earlier, the Commission will report on its justice and law enforcement systems - one of the key issues still on the agenda for the country.

Corruption and state aid, mainly in its outsized steel sector, also remain among the strong points of criticism by the EU executive.

However, Bucharest continues to express optimism that it will join the 25-nation bloc in two years.

"I'm convinced that we will be able to fulfil all our obligations throughout the two years before we join the EU in 2007," said Mr Popescu-Tariceanu.

Corruption still causes a headache

For his part, Mr Barroso welcomed the signals by the country's top leaders to fight corruption and deal with specific problems surrounding public procurement and judiciary.

However, he stressed that the main evaluation report due in October, in which the Commission might propose to delay membership by one year, is still an option.

"I'd like to see things go right and I hope they will, but we will be objective and serious in monitoring the further developments in Romania."

Romania completed accession negotiations last December, but the EU applied two safeguard clauses to prevent its accession in case it fails to fulfil promises.

Under the first one - which also applies to Bulgaria - member states can decide unanimously to delay the countries' accession until 2008.

In addition to that, Romania's entry alone may also be postponed by a simple qualified majority, if falling short to meet EU standards on legal and interior affairs, and competition.

Reforms too slow, while time running out

According to Transparency International, the reform process in Bucharest is taking too long.

"Over the past months, a large number of important measures to fight corruption have been adopted in Romania. But what is missing is an independent authority which would monitor how and if they are really implemented," Victor Elistar, an expert at the organisation, told the Euobserver.

The public perception of the problem also needs to be addressed, he suggested.

"We have a huge and long-term debate about the corruption in Romania. It dominated the pre-election campaign and everyday media coverage. But when asked about their real experience, the citizens still don't see the difference, and do not trust politicians to have made any by the recent legislation".

http://euobserver.com/?sid=9&aid=18223

[rollinTHUNDER]

Solana suggests 'early warning' system for EU-US relations

25.01.2005 - 07:51 CET | By Honor Mahony

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The EU's future foreign minister has said that the EU and the US should have a much more pragmatic relationship.

Speaking just days after the inauguration of US President George W. Bush for a second term in office, Javier Solana said "we have to have a pragmatic approach to our relations".

Mr Solana told MEPs on Monday (24 January) that relations between Brussels and Washington should be based on three planks - it should be pragmatic, results-oriented and have an early warning system.

Such a system would avoid "differences of opinion actually becoming real problems over time", said the Spaniard, who is due to become the EU's foreign minister under the new European Constitution.

More action, less words

He also said there was a need for both sides to stop talking about their problems and talk to each other instead.

"More intense and fluid relations" are needed said Mr Solana adding that the better relations are, the better the chances that the problems facing both sides will be solved.

He pointed to the lack of peace, environment problems, poverty and disease as areas where the two sides could work together.

But even as he was telling MEPs of the 'early warning system' to stop differences spiralling into major bones of contention, he addressed another point of conflict with the US: Iran.

Mr Solana said that he thought the EU's engagement in Iran is "fundamental".

Pushed by Britain, France and Germany, the EU is pursuing a diplomatic route.

Mr Solana said that as an option, "it is the only one that is possible". The US, however, has refused to rule out military action in Iran if it is not more forthcoming about its suspected nuclear programmes.

Other problematic issues include a differing approach to China and trade issues.

Preparing the EU stage

When questioned by MEPs on the differences between the EU and the US, he said, "it's true that we are multilateralists and the US is more unilateral than we are".

But he added that he thought that the conversation rather than monologue promised by incoming US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice "may take place".

Mr Solana's words come as he carves himself an ever bigger role on the EU stage.

Although Mr Solana, who is currently the EU's highest diplomat as its foreign policy representative, is not due to become EU foreign minister until at least 2006, he has become more assertive since EU leaders agreed the Constitution last June.

His most obvious efforts recently have been the high-profile visits to Ukraine in the aftermath of the disputed presidential elections.

http://euobserver.com/?sid=9&aid=18224

[rollinTHUNDER]

External relations Commissioner calls for EU seat in UN

25.01.2005 - 09:55 CET | By Honor Mahony

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The external relations commissioner has said that the EU should strive for a single seat in the UN Security Council.

Speaking in Berlin on Monday, Benita Ferrero-Waldner said that the United Nations system is very strongly based on nation-state thinking.

Instead, she argued, "sovereignties" should be combined.

Mrs Ferrero-Waldner, who was previously Austria's foreign minister, said that she is "not making the case for a European superpower ... Europe is not in the act of building up a global empire".

"This commitment to multilateralism is a founding principle of EU foreign relations. Our goal is to strengthen international security through concerted work within the framework of international organisations".

"I think that one should consider a special seat for the EU in the security council given its foreign policy significance".

Idea rejected

Mrs Ferrero-Waldner said she is aware of the position of member states but added that "Europe must speak with one voice in the Security Council".

Her comments were rejected almost immediately by Germany - a country which is itself pushing for a seat in the Security Council once it is reformed.

Speaking in New York on the same day, German foreign minister Joschka Fischer said the idea was "unrealistic".

He said that Germany would agree to creating a single EU seat if France and the UK would give up their own seats. He added, however, that "this will not happen in the near future, so the debate is over before it has even started".

Reform

At the moment, the UN security council has fifteen members. Of these, five are permanent veto-wielding members

[rollinTHUNDER]

Straw: 'No' to EU Constitution would mean an isolated Britain

26.01.2005 - 09:44 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

The British foreign secretary has spoken out in favour of the European Constitution as the bill paving the way for a referendum comes before the parliament today (26 January).

"If we reject this treaty, Britain will be isolated and weak in Europe - going cap in hand to our partners and may be forced, in time, to accept some kind of second status in Europe as others go ahead without us", Jack Straw was quoted as saying by the BBC.

Mr Straw, known for his euroscepticism, suggested that the Constitution reflects "a British vision for Europe", as it gives "national governments a stronger grip".

"Agreed by 25 freely co-operating, independent nations, the Constitution fixes the EU's power, while making it a more flexible and more efficient organisation", he said.

Date still not clear

The bill to incorporate the Constitution treaty into British law and its adoption by a referendum will be published today.

However, it is still not clear when the referendum will be held.

Cautious about the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Britain, UK Prime Minister Tony Blair refused to pin down the referendum to spring 2006, as suggested by Mr Straw.

The referendum in Britain will be "some time in 2006 but when, I don't know", Mr Blair said in an interview in today's Financial Times.

Too much Europe as a threat

The European Constitution remains a subject of strong opposition in the UK.

The main opposition party, the Conservatives, argue that it would mean giving more power to Brussels, and "that is bad for jobs and bad for prosperity", their spokesman said, according to the BBC.

Mr Straw accused opponents of the treaty of "wrapping themselves in the union flag in order to paint Europe as a threat to Britain's national sovereignty".

For the Constitution to come into place, all 25 member states have to ratify it. So far, just Lithuania and Hungary have done it via their parliaments.

Britain is among those countries - along with Denmark and the Czech Republic - where there is a high chance of the Constitution being rejected.

http://euobserver.com/?sid=9&aid=18244

[rollinTHUNDER]

European Parliament row mars Auschwitz commemorations

25.01.2005 - 20:28 CET | By Richard Carter

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - As World leaders prepare to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, a behind-the-scenes wrangle over the exact wording of a European Parliament resolution on the issue shows how sensitive the matter remains in Europe.

On 19 January, the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) group in the European Parliament proposed a "resolution on remembrance of the Holocaust, anti-semitism and Racism", which stated, "the concentration and extermination camps built by the German Nazis are among the most shameful and painful pages of the history of our Continent".

The EPP resolution, co-signed by its German leader Hans-Gert P

[rollinTHUNDER]

EU envoy: Israeli-Palestinian peace deal is a 'strategic priority'

By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent

The European Union's new ambassador to Israel, Ramiro Cibrian-Uzal, says that he plans to make a concerted effort to improve the EU's image here.

Speaking to journalists in Tel Aviv on Tuesday, Cibrian-Uzal said that it was important for Israelis to see the EU making every effort to be balanced, and to take legitimate Israeli concerns into consideration.

An Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement is a "strategic priority" for the EU right now, he continued, but the union believes that its desire for peace complements its friendship for Israel.

Cibrian-Uzal also said that an agreement signed last month to upgrade EU-Israeli relations in the context of the European Neighborhood Policy will enable "unprecedented cooperation." In the context of this deal, he said, the EU has offered Israel "more or less" the same level of cooperation it has with Switzerland."

The EU currently has many agreements with Switzerland that it does not have with Israel, and it is Israel's decision whether it wishes to take the EU up on this offer, he said. But if the Israeli's cooperation with the EU ever does reach the Swiss level, the question of Israel joining the union would not be out of place, he added.

In response to Cibrian-Uzal's remarks, government sources said that Israel's relations with the EU have improved due to the thaw in Israeli-Palestinian relations that followed Yasser Arafat's death, but the fundamental disagreements remain unchanged: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon still rejects any European involvement in the peace process because of the EU's "unbalanced" approach, and Europe continues to want to proceed rapidly to final-status negotiations, while Israel insists that there be no shortcuts in the path laid out by the road map peace plan.

The sources added that Israel is in no hurry to join the EU, or even to reach Switzerland's level of cooperation with it.

http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/spages/531901.html

[rollinTHUNDER]

One third of EU citizens unaware of European Constitution

28.01.2005 - 07:21 CET | By Honor Mahony

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - With several member states beginning the long path to ratification of the European Constitution, a new poll has shown that a high percentage of EU citizens feel they know little about its content and a third are completely unaware of the document.

A eurobarometer poll due to be published next week, and obtained by the EUobserver, says that just 11 percent of EU citizens have heard of the Constitution and feel they know its contents.

Thirty-three percent have never heard of the new EU charter which was signed with great ceremony last year and is to be put to a referendum in at least nine member states - starting in Spain next month.

In individual member states, the figures are higher - 50% of Britons, 45% of Irish and 39% of Portuguese are unaware of the document.

"These figures might change with the intensification of the public debate", suggests eurobarometer in notes adjoining the statistics.

There is also a high lack of knowledge about what is in the 460-article treaty agreed by EU governments last June.

Only 39% of citizens know that the Constitution does not foresee the creation of a direct European tax; meanwhile only 38% of respondents know that the President of the European Council will not be directly elected by citizens and only 38% are aware of the petition right.

Overall, 56% say they know very little about it contents.

The highest rate of correct answers to the six items tested occurred in Finland, Denmark, Belgium and Slovenia.

More Britons against than in favour

The UK, which many feel may reject the Constitution in its planned referendum next year, has among the most extreme results.

At 30%, it has the most people against the Constitution; while, at 20%, the least in favour of the document.

This contrasts strongly with Italy and Belgium where the figures in favour are 72% and 70% respectively.

Sixty-seven per cent of citizens in Ireland and Cyprus meanwhile answered "don't know" when asked about their attitudes towards the Constitution.

Information campaign

Socialists MEPs have called for an information campaign across Europe on the back of these results.

"In order to have a successful campaign for the Yes, the level of information has clearly got to be improved", said UK labour MEP Richard Corbett.

Dutch Socialist MEP Jan Marinus Wiersma said "My overall impression is that there is still intensive effort necessary to inform everybody".

The Constitution, which will introduce an EU foreign minister, a permanent chair of the EU and greater powers to the European Parliament, has to be ratified by all 25 member states before it can come into force.

The poll was carried out between October and November last year by TNS Opinion/EOS Gallup Europe and 24,786 citizens were surveyed.

http://euobserver.com/?sid=9&aid=18272