APRIL 8th PREDICTION

[rollinTHUNDER]

Quartet members: Give Hamas time

By HERB KEINON AND HILARY LEILA KRIEGER

Voices are being raised in the Quartet (the US, EU, Russia and the UN) arguing that the cutoff date by which Hamas must accept certain preconditions or face international isolation is "malleable" and not necessarily the day a Hamas government is formed, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

One Western diplomatic official said that among the questions the Quartet principals were dealing with now was what would happen if Hamas were to make some move toward recognizing Israel and continue to abide by a cease-fire, but would not go all the way toward full-throated recognition of Israel or committing itself to nonviolence.

"We struck a hard, tough position, placed a very high bar," the official said.

On January 30, the Quartet issued a statement saying that "all members of a future Palestinian government must be committed to nonviolence, recognition of Israel and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations, including the road map."

"What now requires a lot of fine-tuning is what if they start moving in that direction, while perhaps falling short of the principles. What do we do then? "Do we bring down the guillotine anyway," he said.

He also said that the Quartet never precisely defined what recognition of Israel or a commitment to nonviolence actually meant.

Up until now Israel's understanding of the Quartet's position was that if Hamas did not recognize Israel, disarm and disavow terror, and accept previous agreements with Israel, the international community's relationship with the Palestinian Authority would change when a new Hamas government was sworn in.

Now, however, there are those in the Quartet arguing that the Hamas government will need more time - once it is sworn in - to clarify its positions.

"The outcome of the diplomatic activity that is under way is not predetermined, and there are question marks - questions that will likely remain unanswered for a fair period of time," the official said.

He said that Hamas had little inkling of what it meant to take on the responsibility of government, such as having to pay salaries to 135,000 workers. He also said Hamas was currently working on two tracks: trying to get Fatah into the government and touring various capitals to gauge support and measure their maneuverability room.

"These are both learning processes for them," he said. "It is a reality check. Coming out of the shell and getting exposure abroad is almost always very beneficial, because one starts understanding what is possible."

He said that the Quartet statement of January 30 did not say that the international community's relationship with the PA would change once a Hamas-led government was formed. Rather, the statement read: "It was inevitable that future assistance to any new government would be reviewed by donors against that government's commitment to the principles of nonviolence, recognition of Israel and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations, including the road map."

But, he said, it would take some time once the government was set up for its positions to come clearly to light. In other words, Israel was likely to be disappointed if, as it has said publicly, it expected the world to cut off financial ties with the PA immediately after a new government was sworn in.

"This is a soft plastic moment, not predetermined," he said. "One of the facts that will determine where Hamas goes will be how the international community behaves toward it."

He said that if the international community's premise regarding Hamas was that it is a terrorist organization that has now turned the PA into a terrorist entity, then it is "a lost cause."

But, he said, if you look at Hamas's record and see that despite the "repulsive covenant" and a record of terror "as long as your arm," it still pretty much respected the cease-fire over the last year, took part in the PA elections and had recently tried to hide its covenant, then it has "thrown its hat into the framework" of the Oslo Accords and implicitly accepted them.

"The reason they stopped shooting about a year ago was not because of a sudden pang of conscience," the official said, "but because they saw in their polls that the people did not want Israelis to be shot at, for the understandable reason that the retributions were pretty tough."

He said that the Quartet interpreted Hamas's election victory as having nothing to do with the group's ideology. "We have decided that they voted for change, but that this vote in no way nullifies the desire, as articulated by [PA Chairman] Mahmoud Abbas, for a two-state solution, not because they love it, but because it is the only way to go. This has been corroborated in poll after poll."

He said that if the international community played its cards right, it "could bring them the whole way back" and get Hamas to accept the Oslo parameters - be prepared to negotiate peacefully with Israel and recognize the right of Israel to exist in peace and security.

"If, on the other hand, we act as if it were a lost cause, then are we not pushing them into the other direction," he asked.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apa...icle%2FShowFull

Edited February 26, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

[rollinTHUNDER]

EUROPE 2020 ALARM / Global Systemic Rupture

March 20-26, 2006:

Iran/USA - Release of global world crisis

By Franck Biancheri : President of TIESWeb, President of Newropeans, fellow researcher at Europe 2020..

17/02/2006

The Laboratoire europ

Edited February 28, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

[dgolvach]

Well .....one thing for sure. The devil is not lazy. I mean he is really a hard worker! No slackin at all!

Dan

[rollinTHUNDER]

EU grants Iran talks before IAEA meet

Thu Mar 2, 2006 8:10 AM ET

By Mark Heinrich

VIENNA (Reuters) - EU powers said on Thursday they had agreed to last-minute talks with Iran on Friday before a U.N. nuclear watchdog meeting that could spawn U.N. Security Council steps against Tehran over concerns it seeks atom bombs.

But "EU3" diplomats held out scant hope of a breakthrough in their first direct contact with Iran since December, noting Tehran was defiantly accelerating uranium enrichment work and declining to embrace a Russian proposal to defuse the crisis.

Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, fresh from inconclusive talks in Moscow on an offer to enrich uranium for Iran in Russia to pre-empt diversions into bombmaking, announced he would see British, French and German envoys before March 6.

That is the date when the International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors will meet to weigh a report by the IAEA chief saying essentially that Iran had ignored a February 4 board call to re-suspend enrichment work to regain world trust.

Instead Iran is test-feeding uranium gas into centrifuges, which purify it into fuel for nuclear reactors or, potentially, bombs, and plans to start installing 3,000 centrifuges later this year in a thrust toward "industrial-scale" enrichment.

Tehran denies Western suspicions of a covert bomb project and the IAEA has found no hard proof arms are being developed. Iran says it wants only nuclear-generated electricity but it hid atomic work for 18 years and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has publicly called for Israel's destruction.

Britain and Germany confirmed a meeting of foreign ministers with Larijani was set for Friday in Vienna at his request.

"We will listen to what Iran has to say but we have no new proposals," said a British Foreign Office spokesman.

EU3 diplomats said Larijani would be again told Iran must return to complete suspension of enrichment-related work including conversions of uranium ore, the first step in the process, to win fresh negotiations on trade incentives.

An EU3 diplomat, who like others asked not to be identified due to the subject's delicacy, said his side was "not optimistic there will be any outcome, not least because there has clearly been no breakthrough with Russia".

"We agreed to this meeting only reluctantly. But we decided to show the EU3 format is still on the table since Iran had pronounced it dead," said another EU3 diplomat in Vienna.

Larijani said Iran sought another hearing with the EU as "we believe our programs are clear and defensible" but warned Russia's proposal would die if the Security Council intervened.

IRAN ALREADY REPORTED TO SECURITY COUNCIL

The IAEA board reported Iran to the Council on February 4 but on the condition the foremost world body on war and peace took no measures until after nuclear watchdog's session next week.

"Negotiations with Russia were constructive and effective ... (but) the Russian proposal needs to become more mature ...," Larijani told IRNA news agency, apparently objecting to Moscow's insistence Iran re-suspend enrichment work as part of the deal.

"Russia's proposal will be the first victim of referring our case to the Security Council. This move will make the situation more critical and reduce our cooperation with the IAEA."

Iranian leaders have been combing the world with diplomacy trying to slow momentum toward Security Council action, hoping to capitalize on non-Western opposition led by Russia and China to imposing sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

EU3 diplomats said foreign ministers would also have consultations with IAEA director-general Mohamed ElBaradei.

ElBaradei is concerned that engaging the Security Council may drive Iran into a corner and yield only deadlock given that veto-wielding Russia and China reject calls for sanctions.

The EU3 froze dialogue with Iran in January after it broke a 2-1/2-year moratorium on enrichment activity.

In a report sent to the board this week and to be forwarded to the Council, ElBaradei said too many questions remained after three years of IAEA investigations for the agency to be able to certify Iran had no illicit bomb agenda.

He said Iran's decision to end short notice U.N. inspections in retaliation for being reported to the Security Council would make it all the harder to do so.

Japan's Kyodo news agency said John Bolton, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, had urged Japan to work with Washington to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, despite Tokyo's plans to develop an Iranian oil field.

Bolton said Iran was using its position "very skillfully" as a major oil exporter as leverage in talks with other nations.

Iran's resistance to pressure to curb nuclear activity is based in part on confidence that Russia and China, both with huge trade stakes in the Islamic Republic, will block Western efforts to have the Security Council isolate it with sanctions.

(Additional reporting by Parinoosh Arami in Tehran, Madeline Chambers in London, Oliver Bullough in Moscow, Louis Charbonneau in Berlin, Mark Bendeich and Jalil Hamid in Kuala Lumpur, Isabel Reynolds, George Nishiyama and Teruaki Ueno in Tokyo, Chris Buckley in Beijing).

http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle....umber=0&summit=

Edited March 3, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

[rollinTHUNDER]

Berlin and Paris in talks on EU constitution revival

06.03.2006 - 09:51 CET | By Mark Beunderman

German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Jacques Chirac are engaged in confidential talks aimed at re-submitting the core of the EU constitution to French and Dutch voters, according to a German weekly.

Spiegel Online reports in a preview of the Spiegel weekly printed edition that conservatives from Germany, France and the European Parliament are plotting a scheme for reviving the EU constitution which was rejected by French and Dutch voters in referendums last year.

According to the plans, the charter should be reduced to its first two parts, setting out the EU

Edited March 6, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

[rollinTHUNDER]

UN nuclear watchdog in crucial meeting on Iran

06.03.2006 - 09:58 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

The UN's nuclear watchdog is meeting for a crucial debate on Iran's nuclear activities, likely to result in the islamic country's referral to the UN security council where it could face international sanctions.

At the gathering of the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) starting in Vienna on Monday (6 March), diplomats will hear a report by UN watchdog director-general Mohamed ElBaradei on Tehran's controversial nuclear programme.

The report, already leaked to the Western media, describes recent steps by Iran which show non-compliance with principles agreed with the international community, such as the rejection of stricter IAEA inspections on the nuclear activities.

It also says the Iranians have started feeding uranium gas into centrifuges, which is considered a first phase in a process that can produce fuel for nuclear reactors or bomb material, the BBC reports.

Iranian officials say the country's nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, mainly the generating of electricity in order to meet rising domestic energy demand.

Tehran has warned it will resume large-scale nuclear enrichment if it is referred to the security council, the UN's top executive body.

The country's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, has made it clear Iran will not back down in the face of international pressure and might use oil to its advantage if the dispute results in concrete steps against the country.

"We have no interest in using oil as a weapon because we respect the psychological security of the international community," said Mr Larijani according to AFP, adding "But naturally if they change the situation that will automatically be affected too."

US ups pressure

Meanwhile, EU and US pressure on Teheran is mounting.

Last-ditch talks between the EU3 - Germany, France and the UK - and Iran failed on Friday, with the European trio claiming the Iranian approach was more constructive but unchanged on the crucial issue - the complete ceasing of uranium enrichment.

"We are now at a very critical stage, as we told our friends today very clearly," commented the EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

With Iran's referral to the UN widely expected, US officials have made clear they are ready to take a tough stance in New York.

"The Iran regime must be made aware that if it continues down the path of international isolation, there will be tangible and painful consequences," the US ambassador to the UN John Bolton said on Sunday.

According to the UK daily the Guardian, Mr Bolton was even more outspoken during the meeting with British MPs over the weekend, at which he reportedly hinted that military action should also be considered, if diplomatic pressure fails.

"They must know everything is on the table and they must understand what that means. We can hit different points along the line. You only have to take out one part of their nuclear operation to take the whole thing down," he is reported as saying.

On the other hand, China and Russia are urging for diplomacy to continue.

Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing said on Sunday "China hopes Iran can as soon as possible resume negotiations with the European Union and negotiations with Russia."

"The important thing is to peacefully and properly resolve the problem through diplomatic means," he added.

http://euobserver.com/9/21044

Edited March 6, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

[rollinTHUNDER]

Russian move on Iran challenges EU unity

07.03.2006 - 09:55 CET | By Mark Beunderman

A looming compromise on Iran's nuclear programme stemming from the latest Russian proposal has put the unity of the EU3 countries - Britain, France and Germany - to the test, agency reports indicate.

A deal ending the dispute over Tehran's nuclear programme appeared to come closer on Monday (6 March) as the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Mohamed El Baradei expressed optimism over the Iran dossier.

"I am still very much hopeful that in the next week or so an agreement could be reached," Mr El Baradei stated according to Reuters, ahead of the UN nuclear watchdog

Edited March 7, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

[rollinTHUNDER]

Member states agree EU joint defence research fund

07.03.2006 - 17:45 CET | By Teresa K

Edited March 7, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

[rollinTHUNDER]

Turkish row over general's plot to frustrate EU accession

09.03.2006 - 10:11 CET | By Mark Beunderman

The Turkish army's designated chief of staff has been accused of attempts to frustrate Turkey's EU accession by plotting a series of attacks on Kurdish targets designed to spark a nationalist backlash.

A Turkish public prosecutor has accused general Yasar Buyukanit, head of the Turkish land forces, of orchestrating the hand grenade attack on a Kurdish bookshop in the town of Semdinli in the south east of the country, according to media reports.

Parts of the accusations of the prosecutor were leaked to Turkish papers over the weekend.

The prosecutor, based in the the city of Van, has accused general Buyukanit of being behind the attack, which the prosecutor suspects was carried out by Turkish security forces.

The attack, carried out in November, killed one person and injured six.

A list of 105 potential Kurdish targets including the bookshop was found in a police van after the attack.

According to the prosecutor's accusations, the ultimate aim of the planned series of attacks was to stir up unrest among Kurds, sparking a Turkish nationalist reaction which would frustrate Turkey

Edited March 9, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER

[rollinTHUNDER]

Iran nuclear row moves to top UN body

09.03.2006 - 09:47 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

The Iran nuclear dispute has been referred to the UN's security council, despite earlier hopes for a compromise deal on nuclear research at a meeting of the IAEA in Vienna.

Diplomats gathered at the 35-strong International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Wednesday (8 March) failed to convince Tehran to freeze uranium enrichment and fully cooperate with international investigators.

The US and EU blocked the compromise proposal filed earlier this week by Russia which suggested Tehran should be allowed to carry out a small-scale nuclear programme.

The move was received with dismay by Iranian authorities, accusing the US of "hijacking" the diplomatic process and warning them of harsh consequences.

"The US has the power to cause harm and pain. But the US is also susceptible to harm and pain. So if that is the path that the US wishes to choose, let the ball roll," said Ali-Asghar Soltanieh, Iran

Edited March 9, 2006 by rollinTHUNDER