APRIL 8th PREDICTION

[LadyGunivere]

wow its getting close..........I didn't think it was possible....I thank you for everything...

[rollinTHUNDER]

Israel asks Muslim states to send troops

By RAVI NESSMAN, Associated Press Writer

Sat Aug 26, 4:21 PM ET

JERUSALEM - The Israeli government said Saturday it is asking friendly Muslim countries to contribute troops to the U.N. force that is to help police the cease-fire in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah.

The U.N. wants Muslim troops included to lend credibility in the region to what so far is a mostly European force, and the predominantly Islamic nations of Indonesia, Bangladesh and Malaysia have offered to participate.

But none of those recognize Israel, which says it would be reluctant to share intelligence with a force that included Muslim nations it doesn't have relations with. While Israel does not have any veto, its opposition to a country could influence which troops are included.

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said Israel had spoken to the governments of several Muslim nations with which it has diplomatic relations, but primarily to Turkey. Turkey, which would be acceptable to all parties, has not decided whether to join the mission.

"If Turkey decides to send a contingent, we would welcome that," Regev said.

He did not specify the other nations contacted by Israel, but Jordan and Egypt are among the Muslim countries that Israel has relations with.

The difficulties facing the nascent force were already apparent, with a top Hezbollah official saying in a defiant interview published Saturday that the Shiite Muslim guerrilla group would keep its weapons despite international pressure to disarm.

Sheik Naim Kassem, the group's deputy leader, also told the Lebanese newspaper An-Nahar that Hezbollah's "resistance" to Israel would continue. "Justifications for ending it do not exist," he said.

Kassem's remarks underscored the fragility of the U.N.-brokered cease-fire.

The deployment of the U.N. force along Lebanon's border with Israel is stipulated by the cease-fire deal that ended a month of Israel-Hezbollah fighting on Aug. 14.

The international force is to reinforce the Lebanese army, which is moving 15,000 soldiers of its own into the south. The troops are Lebanon's first assertion of central authority in the south in decades.

European Union nations pledged 6,900 soldiers Friday, dispelling concerns the peacekeeping force might not materialize because of reluctance to send troops without clear instructions or authorization to use their weapons. But the force was still far short of the 15,000 soldiers envisioned under the U.N. resolution.

Questions remained over whether Hezbollah would be allowed to remain an armed force.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan stressed Friday it would not be the peacekeepers' task to strip the guerrillas of their weapons, saying that was an issue for Lebanon's government and "cannot be done by force."

Regev reiterated Israel would not lift its air and sea embargo of Lebanon until peacekeepers and the Lebanese army deploy along the Syrian border to block arms shipments to Hezbollah from its two main supporters, Iran and Syria.

Both nations deny helping Hezbollah. But Syria's state news agency said Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mahammad Rida Baqeri was in Damascus on Saturday to discuss the "repercussions of the latest Israeli aggression in Lebanon."

Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora's office released a statement saying Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called the premier Saturday and said she was exerting "serious and prompt" efforts to get the Israeli blockade lifted as soon as possible.

Rice also stressed the importance of Lebanese authorities controlling the country's border crossings, and Saniora said his government was going ahead with its plan to police the crossings on its own, the statement said.

There was no immediate comment from the State Department.

Earlier in the day, Lebanese Information Minister Ghazi Aridi criticized the United States over the blockade.

"We regret to say that the U.S. administration stands by Israel on this, and we absolutely condemn and reject this position," he told reporters in Beirut.

He urged the international community to help get the blockade lifted "because we in Lebanon cannot endure more humiliation." While aimed at Hezbollah arms shipments, the blockade also is hindering shipments of food, fuel and other goods to Lebanon.

The debate over policing the Syrian border is unlikely to delay Israel's withdrawal of troops from Lebanon. After what many consider a mismanaged war, the Israeli public is pressuring the government to get the army out quickly.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060826/ap_on_...st_peacekeepers

[rollinTHUNDER]

Solana rejects Chirac criticism on EU Lebanon role

01.09.2006 - 16:23 CET | By Mark Beunderman

EUOBSERVER / LAPPEENRANTA - EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana has brushed off criticism by French president Jacques Chirac on the EU's handling of the Lebanon crisis, saying the bloc responded in a "fantastic manner."

Mr Chirac earlier this week made some critical remarks, saying the EU had failed to give Mr Solana, the bloc's top diplomat, a stronger mandate to intervene in the violence between Israel and Hezbollah.

"Europe was insufficiently active in the Lebanese crisis, although France had recommended on a number of occasions that the high representative be given a mandate to speak out on behalf of the 25 member countries, as he is doing on the Iranian issue," the French president stated.

Asked what he thought about Mr Chirac's strong words, Mr Solana said arriving at an EU foreign ministers' meeting in the Finnish town of Lappeenranta that "this question should be asked of France."

"The EU as a whole has responded in a fantastic manner. In a very short period of time, we have provided large numbers of troops which are at the heart of the UN force," he stated.

The EU last week reached agreement on contributing around 7,000 troops to a new UN peacekeeping force in the region.

Mr Solana referred to UN secretary-general Kofi Annan being "very grateful" for the EU's efforts, with Mr Annan making clear that the last 11 August UN resolution which produced a ceasefire came about largely because of EU engagement.

"We should be proud of that," said Mr Solana.

French grumpiness

Foreign minister Erkki Tuomioja of Finland, which currently holds the EU presidency, also distanced himself from Paris, telling journalists "Mr Solana's role is clear. He has always had the mandate to implement the policies of the EU agreed in the council [the EU member states' decision-making body]."

Asked about France's grumpiness, he said "In every member state there are of course national considerations and difficulties," adding it is "natural" for national capitals to "put some of the onus" on the EU.

Mr Tuomioja said he is "relatively satisfied with the way the EU was able to handle the Lebanon crisis."

Helsinki last month clashed with Paris, sending a very muted response to a letter by Mr Chirac demanding a stronger role for Mr Solana in the Middle East.

One EU official said Paris' call for a greater Solana role was about a "non issue" as Mr Solana had traveled to the Middle East more than once at the height of the Lebanon crisis, adding that Mr Chirac's dissatisfaction might be related to its own trauma over the failure of the French referendum on the EU constitution.

Dutch foreign minister Bernard Bot signaled surprise over Mr Chirac's comments before the Lappeenranta talks, saying he would ask his French counterpart Philippe Douste-Blazy "what France means" by its criticism.

http://euobserver.com/9/22320

[rollinTHUNDER]

EU confident on new strategic deal with Russia

04.09.2006 - 09:57 CET | By Honor Mahony and Mark Beunderman

The EU is hoping to start negotiations covering future strategic relations with Russia in November after a bilateral summit but some new member states remain deeply mistrustful of the bloc's giant neighbour to the east.

"It seems quite clear we can finalise the mandate - there were no substantial differences," Finnish foreign minister Erkki Tuomioja said after EU ministers over the weekend discussed the new negotiating mandate for updating the current agreement with Moscow.

"The negotiations then will be a prolonged process naturally starting after the summit, but from the EU point of view, we have a clear understanding of how we want to proceed," continued Mr Tuomioja, whose country currently chairs the EU.

But some EU member states remain wary of Moscow and want Brussels to push a hard line in its relations with Russia.

Czech foreign minister Cyril Svoboda told Reuters that the mandate was "more or less" acceptable" and urged a "very strong and tough" negotiating stance.

And Poland expressed concern about how to secure the EU's energy supply.

"Poland is very much concerned about energy security. We are too much dependent on one source of energy, on one direction of energy supply," said Polish foreign minister Anna Fotyga.

Spain's Miguel Angel Moratinos indicated that in order for an agreement to be reached on time "everybody will have to make an effort to get there."

At the moment, Russia's relations with the EU are governed by a so-called Partnership and Co-operation Agreement (PCA)

[rollinTHUNDER]

Popular opinion backs EU foreign minister post

06.09.2006 - 17:33 CET | By Honor Mahony

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - A majority of EU citizens are in favour of having a single EU foreign minister for the bloc, the results of a new survey have shown.

Conducted by the German Marshall Fund in June across several member states including France, Germany, the UK and Italy, the survey showed that 65 percent of respondents would like to see the post created.

The greatest support for the idea was found among the Spanish (74%), the Italians (71%) and the French (69%) while British and Slovak respondents proved among the least keen on the idea, clocking in 52 and 48 percent respectively.

The EU foreign minister position is one of the key innovations of the European constitution which was shelved last year after French and Dutch voters rejected it in referendums.

And so long as the constitution remains moribund, the post is unlikely to see the light of day.

But while there was some strong support for a foreign minister, the idea of the bloc strengthening its military power to play a larger role in the world proved more controversial.

On average, 51 percent were against the idea but there were big differences between countries with the Portuguese (68%) and the French (56%) more in favour of the bloc assuming military responsibilities but the Germans (64%) and the Italians (56%) more against.

A majority of those surveyed believed further enlargement of the EU would bring peace and democracy to the EU bloc's borders (62%) and would strengthen the EU's role in the world (63%).

EU-US trends

The same survey shows that European support for US leadership in world affairs has dropped significantly (from 64% to 37%) since the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington five years ago.

On a similar note, European disapproval of US president George W. Bush's handling of international affairs has risen strongly from 56 percent to 77 percent - with the French, Germans and Spanish proving to be the most critical with an 85 percent disapproval rate.

European disapproval is mirrored across the Atlantic as Americans for the first time since 2001 are more disapproving (58%) than approving (40%) of president Bush's handling of foreign affairs.

Between the 2001 attacks and now the US led an international coalition to invade Afghanistan

[rollinTHUNDER]

Sarkozy keen on radical shake up of EU institutions

08.09.2006 - 18:09 CET | By Mark Beunderman

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - French presidential hopeful Nicolas Sarkozy has proposed radical EU reforms such as getting the European Commission president to pick his own commissioners and cross-border European Parliament elections - but first he wants a new EU "mini treaty."

Mr Sarkozy, currrently the French interior minister, on Friday (8 September) delivered a high-profile speech at the Friends of Europe think-tank during a visit to Brussels, which seemed designed to boost his campaign for the 2007 presidential elections in France.

The energetic politician said the bloc should act "urgently" to overcome its institutional stalemate by reiterating earlier calls for a "mini treaty" containing important elements of the EU constitution - rejected by French and Dutch voters in referendums last year.

But Mr Sarkozy also injected fresh elements in the longer-term debate on the EU's institutional architecture, notably by proposing a radical reform of the European Commission.

In the EU's current Nice treaty, each member state has the right to appoint one commissioner, while the shelved constitution sought to limit the number of commissioners on the basis of equal rotation between member states.

Mr Sarkozy stated however that the principle of national capitals appointing commissioners "does not guarantee neither the efficiency nor the legitimacy" of the EU executive.

"Why aren't we bold...and leave the composition of the commission to its president?...after all, it's on the basis of this logic that national governments are formed."

In Mr Sarkozy's vision, the commission president would himself be elected by the European Parliament - which would provide him with a democratic mandate.

Once elected, the commission chief could then pick his or her own commissioners, which would enable the body to "function like a real team around its president."

Cross-border MEPs lists

The proposals are however likely to raise eyebrows particularly from smaller member states, who would be deprived of any guarantee that they have representation in the commission - while any new commission chief would probably not dare to offend France, Germany or the UK by not picking one of their nationals.

Mr Sarkozy already caused some alarm in small and mid-size member states last year by proposing that the EU's "big six" should together take up a leading role in the union -an idea which he repeated on Friday.

Meanwhile, the French politician, who is the leader of France's centre-right UMP party, also proposed to set up transnational candidate lists for European Parliament elections, based on common political programs.

"In every member state, the questions debated remain essentially national. There is no European campaign," he said, hoping that EU-wide lists would create genuine European debate.

France and Germany should pioneer the scheme with cross-border political platforms in the 2009 elections, according to Mr Sarkozy.

Turkey and the constitution

But the most "urgent" matter for the union to solve at the moment is the deadlock on the EU constitution, he said, repeating proposals made in January for a slimmed-down version of the charter to be ratified by the French parliament.

The "mini treaty" would include key parts of the constitution such as its voting rights provisions and plans to create an EU foreign minister, on which there is a "large consensus."

"It would provide a way out for those countries that voted 'no' without humilitating those who voted 'yes'," he said, adding that the French EU presidency in 2009 should finalise the text.

On enlargement, he stressed that the EU should fix its borders, telling Western Balkan countries that they can join once the EU has sorted out its institutional problems - but he said that Turkey should stay out.

"We should now say who is European and who isn't," he said.

http://euobserver.com/9/22374

[rollinTHUNDER]

EU growth can offset the US debt crisis

11.09.2006 - 07:14 CET | By George Irvin

EUOBSERVER / COMMENT - These are dangerous times for the world economy. Rising demand coupled with the prospect of growing supply uncertainty in the Middle East is driving the price of oil towards a $100 a barrel.

At present, the core countries of the Eurozone are growing slightly faster than last year, but their recovery is still uncertain. Buoyant demand in the United States continues to deliver growth, which in turn continues to keep trade growing in the OECD economies. But just as US domestic demand in the 1990s was driven by stock market exuberance, today it is driven by rising house prices.

The end of the house price bubble coupled with dollar weakness spells serious trouble for Europe.

US household debt

Can the US housing market continue growing and what if the bubble bursts? The good news is that unlike stock market bubbles, housing market bubbles don't burst with a bang. US homeowners won't attempt to sell their houses all at once; prices at first stagnate, then fall slowly.

The bad news is that as consumer demand slows, manufacturing investment slows even more and recession sets in. The bad news for Europeans is that when the US economy sneezes, we catch cold.

To clarify the danger, consider the US housing bubble in more detail. In the United States, low interest rates, tax relief for mortgages and financial deregulation have made it easier for first-time buyers to enter the market and for existing homeowners to turn their appreciating property into ready cash.

Until recently, it cost a mere $500 a month to repay an 'interest only' mortgage worth $100,000 at 4% over 30 years. Since workers' real wages in the US have been virtually stagnant for more than a generation, using property to access extra cash has become vital to many Americans. Consumers have been eager to borrow and the financial sector eager to lend - not just the banks but finance and insurance companies have grown rich on repayments and credit has expanded greatly.

Between 1995 and 2005, the median price of a house in the US doubled, way ahead of the rate of inflation. Net household debt is nearly $12 trillion, and since 2000 most of the increase consists of mortgages.

Why is this dangerous? The problem is that when demand slackens and house prices eventually fall, consumers - starting with the most recent house buyers - find they hold assets worth less than the value of their debt; i.e. they hold 'negative equity'. When they can't repay their loans, the banks are saddled with 'non-performing' assets, and they in turn curtail lending (and in some cases go broke). As the Japanese experience of 1990 illustrated all too clearly, a burst property bubble can cripple an economy for years. EU countries like Spain where property prices have been rising fast would do well to ponder this lesson.

Macroeconomic implications

The net indebtedness of consumers is merely part of the puzzle of US fragility. Household debt now far exceeds corporate savings, which means the private sector is in the red. Bush's tax cuts, although they helped spur US growth after 2001, have left the government in deficit, and these two deficits together are reflected in the US external current deficit which is now the largest in history, $750 billion in 2005, equivalent to nearly 8% of US GDP and growing at the rate of about $150 billion a year.

Since the US private and government sectors have ceased saving, it is foreigners who must save - and lend their savings to the US. The Eurozone, Japan, China and various oil producing countries run a current account surplus with the US, which means these countries take in surplus dollars.

The surplus dollars are used to purchase US financial and real assets; the US has moved from being a net creditor to a net debtor to the tune of roughly $4 trillion. Overseas investment in the US at the end of 2005 probably reached $14 trillion, about the same as the country's national income.

Most important, the deficit has been increasing despite an effective dollar devaluation of 17 percent over the three-year period 2002-04. If adjustment is sought by recourse to devaluation alone, then it is clear that much larger effective devaluation is needed. But a very large devaluation would most likely be accompanied by a US - and thus a world - recession.

Devaluation, moreover, is unlikely to be voluntary; on the contrary, a run of the dollar could be set off by any number of events. A further oil price rise (say, spurred by fear of a strike against Iran) would lead financial markets to expect the Fed to choke off the inflationary danger by raising interest rates, thus squeezing the housing market. Or suppose China decided to convert much of its dollar holdings into euros? Indeed, financial markets need only believe that a crisis may occur in order for a real crisis to occur.

Engineering a soft landing means faster EU growth

Engineering a soft landing for the dollar will not be easy, particularly as neither the US government nor the IMF appear to think strong corrective action is required. By contrast, most economists involved in this debate believe that at least three things are needed.

First, US interest rates need to be nudged up gently to take the steam out of the housing market without precipitating a loss of confidence (which is already happening). Secondly, agreement is needed between the world's finance ministers - along the lines of the 1985 Plaza Accord - to effect an orderly and effective devaluation of the dollar.

Most important, if the US economy will need to grow more slowly in order for import demand to fall, the rest of the world needs to grow more quickly to absorb extra US exports and offset deflationary pressure on the world economy. But China and the rest of Asia cannot realistically grow much faster. The key player is the eurozone, which accounts for a quarter of world GDP.

Brussels and Frankfurt would do well to ponder this lesson. Given the fragility of the international economy, deflationary monetary and fiscal policy in the eurozone is the last thing the world needs!

George Irvin is Research Professor at SOAS in London and author of the recent book

[rollinTHUNDER]

EU diplomats closer to deal with Iran

11.09.2006 - 09:52 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

Iran has mooted a two-month halt of its nuclear programme to avoid international sanctions, with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana arranging a new round of talks after his "more positive" and "constructive" weekend discussions with the Iranian negotiator, Ali Larijani.

"We have made progress and want to continue in that line," Mr Solana said on Sunday (10 September). "We could clarify some of the misunderstandings that existed before," he added, according to media reports.

Mr Solana will meet Iranian officials again this Thursday, as the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) gathers in Vienna this week to discuss the latest developments in the on-going dispute with Tehran over its uranium enrichment programme.

According to a diplomat quoted by the Associated Press, Mr Larijani suggested that Tehran might consider a "voluntary" suspension of enrichment for up to two months at the meeting with Mr Solana later this week.

Iran wants to see substantial security guarantees as part of a final deal with the EU, as well as financial support from the west for building light water nuclear reactors - something which is already contained in the international package Tehran has been considering.

In return, Iran would let IAEA inspectors check its nuclear facilities and promise not to leave the nuclear non-proliferation agreement, according to Financial Times.

The Islamist country has ignored the deadline by the top UN superpowers in the security council to freeze its uranium enrichment programme by the end of August in order to resume negotiations.

The US is now expected to press the EU, Russia and China to back penalties against Tehran but the latest development over the weekend suggests Europe will head on with the talks on a possible last-minute solution.

Earlier this year, the international community put forward a package of political, economic, trade and nuclear incentives as a trade off for the country's halt in its uranium enrichment activities.

Tehran however has so far rejected any preconditions or deadlines for considering the offer, insisting that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes and not for the development of nuclear weapons as feared by the west.

http://euobserver.com/9/22378

[rollinTHUNDER]

Catholic high-level group could fuel EU 'God' debate

11.09.2006 - 17:36 CET | By Mark Beunderman

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - European bishops have commissioned a high-profile group of thinkers to draft a report on the EU's common values, in a move which could spur the debate on the need to include Christianity in a new EU treaty text.

The "group of wise men and women" held its first meeting on Monday (11 September) at the initiative of the Commission of the Bishops' Conferences of the European Community (COMECE).

The experts group - consisting only of Roman Catholics - notably includes three members of the previous European Commission - Mario Monti, Franz Fischler and Loyola de Palacio - as well as Jacques Santer, who led the EU executive from 1995-1999 and former European Parliament president Pat Cox.

Former Belgian ambassador to the EU, Philippe de Schoutheete, who also has a seat in the group, said the aim of the project is to raise awareness of European values among the public at a time when most people are "totally ignorant or unaware" that there is "something more" to the EU than the single market or agricultural policy.

"The EU process has clearly been based on a certain number of values, but in the course of the process they have been largely forgotten," he said.

A COMECE spokeswoman added that the initiative is also "indirectly" aimed at influencing a political declaration on the EU's values and ambitions which the bloc's leaders are planning to adopt on 25 March 2007 - the EU's 50th anniversary date.

The member states' EU birthday declaration is likely to spark fresh debate on Europe's Christian heritage as the basis of its common values - a debate which was recently re-opened by the German chancellor Angela Merkel who made a plea for including "God" in a new EU treaty text.

The text of the EU constitution, which was put on ice after French and Dutch voters rejected it last year, does not include a reference to Christianity, despite strong lobbying by COMECE during the drafting of the text in 2003-2004.

After visiting the Pope in August, Mrs Merkel said "I underlined my opinion that we need a European identity in the form of a constitutional treaty and I think it should be connected to Christianity and God, as Christianity has forged Europe in a decisive way."

Mr De Schoutheete said that the newly launched experts group is not a fresh Catholic attempt to get "God" into a new EU treaty text as such.

"We have no mandate to draft a constitution or a preamble of a constitution," he said.

The group will instead identify the values that drove the EU's founding fathers and which can be "linked to Christian faith" - such as peace, freedom, a rejection of extreme nationalism, solidarity, respect for diversity and subsidiarity (the idea that political decisions should be taken at the lowest possible level).

But COMECE's secretary general Noel Treanor said that apart from the work of the experts group, European bishops are themselves set to discuss their stance on "God" in a new EU treaty, now that Ms Merkel has re-opened the debate.

http://euobserver.com/9/22384

[bkhoward2001]

I deeply believe that Javier Solana is the AntiChrist spoken of in the bible.... Watch and see it fulfill before our very eyes.....