Russia Still Opposed to Sanctions on Iran

[Christ's Free Servant]

But Alexei Malashenko, an analyst at the Moscow Carnegie think tank, said that Russia and China would eventually be dragged into supporting the more hawkish US position.

I find this wording particularly interesting, because a lot of people, myself included, see Russia as Magog, and we believe the Gog & Magog war of Ezekiel 38 & 39 will preceed the tribulation and that it is soon.

Ezekiel 38:1-9: "The word of the LORD came to me: 2

[ted]

Ted, good obersvations.

Three more questions:

Will U.S. use nuclear weaposns agaist Iran?

Will Israel use the same?

What will be the consequences of this with repect to both oil supplies and the actions of other nations?

Hi Old Timer,

As to your questions, all I can do is guess.

But, here goes nothin'.......

1. Will the US Nuke Iran?

Probably not. I don't see a use for nukes there. I think the campaign will begin with a massive and long series of strategic air strikes. First, of course, we take out the radar and tracking devices, and then on to their known military bases, especially the airfields and known ground to air missle defense sites. Then, on to the ground targets like army bases, electrical hubs, fuel processing plants, transportation hubs, and known nuclear facilities (just in case they are a little further along in the building of nuclear weapons than we think). It will make the shock and awe strategy of the Iraq war seem tame in comparison, really, because we feel that Iran is a bit more adept at defending themselves than Iraq was, and also we have learned a thing or two in Iraq- mostly that we should pound them a bit longer from the air before we send in the ground troops.

Pounding Iran will be more similar to Afghanistan than it will Iraq. The terrain is more like Afghanistan than Iraq in most parts of the country.

I also feel that more of the larger nations will join us on this one so we will be able to have more assets at our disposal this time.

I don't foresee a need for nukes. We still cling to a last resort policy when talking about nuclear weapons, and that will hold true in Iran, as well.

But, if we seem to be getting our butts kicked for some odd reason, I wouldn't count them out, either.

2. Will Israel use the same?

Well, it all depends on how well we do our initial jobs over there, as usual. We have been lucky so far in the sense of being able to convince Israel to stay out of these matters in terms of military operations. An introduction of the Israeli military into any of these conflicts would be the end of any arab coalition we may build, and it would mean that Israel could feel that nuclear weapons are appropriate to what they will feel is the defense of their nation.

Their rules are a bit more lax when it comes to the use of their nuclear arsenal than ours.

The real trick is going to be getting to Iran's ability to launch against Israel before they can. Once they do, all bets are off and Israel just may go in anyway. We pulled off some amazing diplomatic victories with Israel during the first Gulf War. Remember when Iraq launched those SCUDs into Israel? Israel wanted to wipe out Irag with a few well placed nukes soon after, but we convinced them not to. I'm not sure we will be able to do it again if Iran launches against Israel.

If we don't act quick in the initial stages of our own attack, Iran may have a slight chance to launch against Israel, and then all is history as far as our plans go.

But, then again, who could blame Israel for hitting back if attacked?

3. What will be the impact on oil supplies and other nations?

Um, if I'm reading you correctly, you are actually asking two questions here, so I'll address them individually. Let me know if I messed your intent up, ok?

a) Impacts on oil.

Not sure, again. I think one of the major lessons learned from Iraq is that we probably will not touch their oil fields. It simply costs too much to rebuild them and get them working again. Production will suffer at first, until we can get people in there and get them producing again. I'm not sure what kind of impact that will bring to the world. Many people felt like we would plunge into a deep oil depression and shortage if we went into Iraq, but it didn't happen. I'm not sure of the numbers, but it was nothing like what some were saying.

Will it be different in Iran? Well, maybe, I guess. It all depends on how much we have to do to get their threat out of the equation. If the war drags on, we'll have to look into wiping out their oil production so that they will have nothing to sell to fund their war. Also, they will have nothing to fuel their machines with, or grease their moving parts with. All of this comes from their petroleum production. If we have to take their refineries out, we will, but we don't want to.

How all of this would affect the world's oil comsumption and pricing is better asked to those that study these things.

While we ask them, we can ask how a nuclear tipped Iran could affect world pricing, as well.

b) Impacts on other nations.

Do you mean which will support us and which will go against us and join with Iran? Well, again, I'm simply not sure. While we talk about this here, a host of nations are pretty much talking about the same thing. Right now, leaders of nations are in the process behind closed doors of figuring out who will side with us and who will not. For those that claim that they will not, a second set of discussions will enter into view. These discussions will lay out just what it will take for those opposed to us to switch to our side. Whether it will mean tariff reductions, trade concessions, weapons sales, or other such things, we'll do what we can to get them over on our side. The arab nations will demand the most. Not because they are greedy, but because they have the most to lose in all of this. If their people think that they are going against what they should be doing as good muslims, they will revolt from the bottom up. To quell that, the big leaders will have to have enough to offer the leaders of smaller uprisings not to revolt. Once the local warlords and villiage leader's palms are greased, things will fall into place.

Other nations have a choice to make, as well. If larger nations like Russia or China feel they can get a better deal by standing with Iran, then they will. We have to remember that we have already busted up their contracts with Saddam, and they're still a little peeved about it. Plus, we basically tore apart the USSR years ago, and those feelings linger, as well.

China walks around all puffed up because they feel we don't take them seriously. China has a inferiority complex and we need someone like Nixon to go over there and stroke their backs for a while.

Both of these nations want to finally pull themselves into the 21st century and may feel that helping Iran through our plans will pay off in the end in matters like oil availibility.

Then again, they may just do what they did concerning Iraq, too. They may decide to cut their losses and go home pouting again.

But, the problem is, they are running out of oil producing friends. Once Iran is taken, Russia and China may feel backed into a wall, with little by the way of oil-rich partners to keep them afloat. These two nations will be the hardest to convince. If they decide to go full out against us with troops, then we are in for a world of hurt- but things are still winable.

Now, who's left.....France?

Who cares. Which ever way they go, they won't be of much help to either side.

Germany? No big deal.

Italy? Nevermind

Well, there's my best guesses as to how things may play out.

Have fun!

t.

PS- CFS and Sul.

I want to get back to some of your comments, as well, but I'm getting late for church.

I'll have to get to them later or tomorrow.

God Bless!

[Old Timer]

Ted, thanks for your reply and thoughts. My questions were a bit simplistic and I proposed them more with the thought that we could not really determine the answers to these questions until events started to move forward. However I appreciate your answers.

I disagree with one major point. I think U.S. will have to use tactical nuclear weapons to take out the underground facilities Iran is building and has built. If we don

[Spunky]

Suprise Suprise Russia against Sanctions of Iran!

Weren't they against the sanctions on Iraq?

How much money do those countries owe

them?

(weapons recieved)

RUSSIA is a moffia run country!

[Arthur Durnan]

America has the strategic missile striking-power to take Iran & its Imam-dominated regime out in a moment of time. Israel too, could take the Mullahs out with lightning precision. The Muslim dictatorship would never know what had hit it or exactly from where. America's sole concern in such a war would be to know whom not to hit, ie, military & citizenry. Then again, war is simply that - war. It's never nice. But the Islam dream is to conquer the Jewish people & establish a Global Muslim Caliphate based on a seventh-century culture. Even a Larry King wouldn't much appreciate baggy knickers & Bushman-like countenance. Kennedy neither. The Iranian story is a self-concocted "Goliath" huffing & puffing against a very level-headed David with five dynamic stones in his pouch. As in the actual Goliath story, ONE stone ended the encounter with enough left over for Goliath's siblings. So which is it, UltraLib friend? Now before the ultimate Iranian weapon, or later with fully completed warheads?

GOD BLESS AMERICA!

http://arthurdurnan.freeyellow.com

[ted]

Iran

[O'Dannyboy]

Our dispute with Iran may not be based on oil, but is certainly being affected by it. If it werent for the oil I think Russia and China would not have a problem with reigning them in, but as it is they both stand to have their economies slow to a crawl without Irans oil. That being the case neither nation is willing to stick its neck out too far. I certainly don't think we have time for either of these nations to find other sources of oil in the quantities they need. So as long as they are dependant on Iran for oil any action against Iran will have to be universal. If China understands that the rest of the world will suffer with them there may yet be some wiggle room. I think Russia is between a rock and a hard cold place. They, because of their location, will find it much harder than China to replace Iran as a source of oil, but as I understand it, they have a good supply of their own oil. There is still hope for a united front against Iran even if China and Russia have to sit back and watch.