Hurricanes

[nebula]

Just a bit of a heads up for you all.

More fierce hurricanes may loom on horizon <<-- LINK

By Michael Coren

CNN

Friday, September 3, 2004 Posted: 12:49 PM EDT (1649 GMT)

(CNN) -- As Hurricane Frances bears down on the United States, weather trackers are sounding the alarm. Yet Frances may only be the first in a series of large, powerful storms to march across the Atlantic in coming years.

The arrival of hurricanes like Charley and Frances within weeks of each other is a rare anomaly, but some meteorologists say more storms like Frances -- both very intense and very large -- are possible.

"Over the past few years, we've seen an increasing trend toward greater activity in the Atlantic Basin and increased strength in storms," said Marshall Shepherd, a research meteorologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "[That] has been leading us to believe that we are going to start seeing more intense hurricanes. That may be bearing itself out right now."

A combination of natural cycles and warming ocean temperatures from global warming may be fueling the destructive storms. Scientists like Shepherd employ an array of satellites, aircraft and computer models to answer those questions in their mission to comprehend the Earth's climate.

"Compared to 20 years ago, we've seen dramatic improvement in our track forecasting," Shepherd said. "But we still have a long way to go."

The legendary storms appear in the Atlantic Ocean like clockwork between June and November.

The hurricanes batter coastlines, destroying homes, coastal towns and beaches over their lifetimes during which they can expend the energy of 10,000 nuclear bombs, according to NASA's Earth Observatory. Although scientists track, monitor and probe them relentlessly, they can do little about them.

Since 1900, Atlantic hurricanes have cut a swath of destruction across the region, accounting for billions of dollars in damage and more than 71,000 deaths, said the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

A torrent of new meteorological data is leading to a better understanding of the physics of hurricanes. Recently developed technology can identify the precise wind direction and rainfall in different parts of the storm. At the same time, sharp-eyed satellites and sophisticated computer models offer unprecedented views inside the giant vortexes.

What they have found is making hurricane-hunting more about science than guesswork.

The National Hurricane Center reports that its forecasts of a storm's predicted landfall have been steadily improving over the past 50 years.

For three-day forecasts, the average margin of error is now about 200 nautical miles, just half of what it was in 1964. Daily predictions are also improving. Today, the average margin of error is just 85 nautical miles, the Center reported.

Disaster coordinators still advise those in the potential path of many hurricanes to evacuate. Although measures can be taken to secure property, little can be done against the worst hurricane winds that can exceed 150 mph and send floodwaters many miles inland. . . .

(snip)

[amor]

A, perhaps rather stupid question, but why do so many Americans who live in areas where such extreme weather seems to be the norm live in flimsy wooden houses and trailers. I live in England where such things don't happen and nearly all our permanent (non holiday) homes are of brick or concrete.

[Born Again]

A, perhaps rather stupid question, but why do so many Americans who live in areas where such extreme weather seems to be the norm live in flimsy wooden houses and trailers. I live in England where such things don't happen and nearly all our permanent (non holiday) homes are of brick or concrete.

You know, I often wonder why people live in "tornado alley"- I mean, I live in south Alabama, so I'm very used to hurricanes. It's a common word down here- but- with hurricanes, you have substantial warning. It you need to evacuate, you have plenty of time to do so. With tornados, they have a very limited amount of time to take cover. But, then again, as long as you and your family are safe, that's all that matters. Material things can be replaced- proceeds of your insurance company!

[nebula]

A, perhaps rather stupid question, but why do so many Americans who live in areas where such extreme weather seems to be the norm live in flimsy wooden houses and trailers. I live in England where such things don't happen and nearly all our permanent (non holiday) homes are of brick or concrete.

Well, it's no more crazy than building an expensive home on a fault line or fire-prone area (Southern California anyone?)

As for the flimsy house and trailer structures, it's a matter of income. A trailer costs a lot less than a solid home, and wooden structures cost less than brick and stone as well.

I am guessing your common home in England doesn't come out to $200+ thousand dollars?

(We've got $300 and $400 K homes in the area I live. )

[kittyjo]

Well there's always the 'Dome Home', made of giant concrete 'shells' formed after spraying concrete on giant balloons/air bags... They say that the home can withstand hurricanes, tornados and the stresses from earthquakes. Here's a link... http://www.pbrla.com/domeprog.html

[amor]

A, perhaps rather stupid question, but why do so many Americans who live in areas where such extreme weather seems to be the norm live in flimsy wooden houses and trailers. I live in England where such things don't happen and nearly all our permanent (non holiday) homes are of brick or concrete.

Well, it's no more crazy than building an expensive home on a fault line or fire-prone area (Southern California anyone?)

As for the flimsy house and trailer structures, it's a matter of income. A trailer costs a lot less than a solid home, and wooden structures cost less than brick and stone as well.

I am guessing your common home in England doesn't come out to $200+ thousand dollars?

(We've got $300 and $400 K homes in the area I live. )

The average British home costs about

[nebula]

I don't know -

There's a complex of town homes recently built in the downtown Columbia area - as in you get almost no land - being sold at at the $300 K - $400 K level.

Now, a couple counties over, in the country ("boonies" as we call them), away from the Baltimore-D.C. metropolitan area, you can get a fair size house for under $100 K, I've heard.

It just depends on what is considered "prime real estate" and what isn't.

But even still, a trailer home in a trailer park is much less expensive and closer to where you might actually have a job (unlike the "boonies").