Heads Up! Virus in China.

[Jostler]

1 minute ago, dhchristian said:

Just to give you a comparison, the Spanish flu of 1918 killed 50 million 500 million having been infected, which is about a 10% mortality rate. The early signs are this may be about the same if not worse, with the number in critical condition being around 200 221 serious, 69 critical  in the epicenter of the outbreak. Now the question is have they contained it enough? Is it air born? how is it transmitted? All these will add to the big If. We know it is reaching the world because of modern flight and travel and if it reaches less controlled area (third world countries it may explode out of control, so we need keep an eye on this. You said a 15% mortality rate, imagine that over 500 Million people, and here is the concern. 

I agree wholeheartedly.....this thing is ALREADY far from a minor inconvenience...this IS serious.   We're just waiting to see how serious.

1.  It is airborne...that has been established

2.  Human to human transmission is WIDELY confirmed and no longer in question either.

3.  The mayor of Wuhan stated in a press conference that 5 million people left Wuhan before it was quarantined.

4.  Patient Zero has not been found for certain.  The earliest known case at this point sought medical help on December 1st last year. The earliest known case to date had NO contact with the "wet market" that has been blamed for the outbreak.....quite an odd puzzle.  No epidemiological connection between that first case and subsequent cases has been found yet either....a bit of a mystery.

5.  China has a MASSIVE presence in Africa....hundreds of thousands of Chinese citizens working on various infrastructure and economic ventures on that continent.  Much of Africa has little in the way of medical care systems....and limited ability to even monitor outbreaks.  If this gets to Africa in any serious way (and I don't see how it has not happened already....this cat is already WAY out of the bag) this could literally cost millions of lives in Africa alone.

6.  The incubation period is between 5 and 14 days, and seems the more information that comes in the more it appears to be averaging near the top  end of that range.

7.  "Shedding" begins soon after infection and patients are contagious days before they develop symptoms or even know they are infected.  Current screening methods are NOT effective against asymptomatic carriers....and that's the vast majority of the infected.

So far, none of the various metrics I've been trying to keep up with have shown improvement....it's serious.

There is one Lancet study circulating (self admittedly extrapolating from too little data) that made some assumptions (plausible, but unconfirmable for now) that predict the actual number of infected in china alone is 20,000ish...already....and extrapolated what they knew of current trends out to February 4th.   Their model predicts somewhere between 165,000 and 350,000 infections by that Feb 4th date.   We shall see, for now I'm watching closely and comparing what is being reported to that predictive analysis.  Lets hope they are wrong.

[other one]

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/27/799925265/coronavirus-continues-to-spread?fbclid=IwAR31AWyJ0KS7tvng36A3_hLuIFuNH114ijk5R3XYWnMiytu8bM5atTtlpPY

Coronavirus Continues To Spread Outside China

 

Public health officials are still trying to figure out how the coronavirus is spreading. Human-to-human transmission of the virus has been confirmed in every major Chinese city.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Public health officials are not calling the coronavirus a pandemic - not yet. Human-to-human transmission of the virus has been confirmed in every major city in China. And the government there is taking increasingly broad actions to try and prevent further spread. We've got NPR global health and development correspondent Jason Beaubien with us from Hong Kong. Hi, Jason.

JASON BEAUBIEN, BYLINE: Hey. Good morning.

MARTIN: So what is the latest you're hearing from public health officials there?

BEAUBIEN: So they just had a press conference with Dr. Gabriel Leung. He's an expert on coronaviruses. He worked on SARS. He led Hong Kong's attack on the bird flu outbreak in 2009. And he's been doing some modeling, looking at what is happening with this current outbreak. And what he's finding is that it's accelerating, and it's accelerating rapidly. And in his predictions, it's only just getting started. He shared this report with the WHO, and then just right after that, he gave it over to the press. And it's fairly, fairly devastating.

Basically, he's predicting that this pandemic is going to peak in late April, early May with about 150,000 cases a day happening in the city of Jiaxing (ph) alone, never mind the rest of China. He's up front, however, that this is a worst-case scenario he's laying out here. And it's based on the assumption that no new measures are put in place to get control of the outbreak that's currently going on.

MARTIN: Right. So at the top, I said that they're not calling this a pandemic. So we should just reinforce the fact that, as you just said, that's worst-case scenario. Like, that is what a pandemic looks like, if it starts affecting that many people. What measures, I mean, can be taken? We've heard about these travel bans, trying to contain people. But what else is possible?

BEAUBIEN: So, you know, again, Leung and his colleagues are very upfront that there's a lot that is still not known about this. But they say the key is containing things now. And Leung says they need to limit the spread of the virus.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

GABRIEL LEUNG: Substantial draconian measures may need to be taken.

MARTIN: Whoa, draconian?

BEAUBIEN: Yes. I mean, it was fairly powerful language - draconian measures to isolate the sick, quarantine people who may have been exposed, limit people from moving around, cancel large public gatherings. Hong Kong's already canceled schools through at least February 17. Shanghai has now announced that they're going to order businesses and government offices to stay closed until February 9. Every day, we're getting more buses and trains and planes that are getting cancelled in different parts of China. And, you know, at this point, nobody thinks there's going to be some magic pill or vaccine that's going to come in and stop this outbreak. Right now, again, it's all about containment.

MARTIN: And so while their modeling is just about containing it in China, I mean, are they saying anything specific about the threat right now outside of China?

BEAUBIEN: Yeah. So just to be clear, you know, these are Hong Kong researchers. To some degree, they were looking at, what is the threat to Hong Kong? However, these are people who have worked with China for a long time. They know this region well. They worked on SARS. They've worked on, you know, the bird flu. And so their main focus was what's happening in China right now. But they did say that, particularly, if this worst-case modeling plays out and you get hundreds of thousands of cases a day, this is not going to stay in China.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

LEUNG: We have to be prepared that this particular epidemic may be about to become a global epidemic.

BEAUBIEN: A global pandemic. You know, and he's basically saying that it's not going to stop this rapid acceleration unless something new comes in - this rapid acceleration that we've seen over the last week.

MARTIN: All right. NPR's Jason Beaubien reporting from Hong Kong. Thank you.

BEAUBIEN: You're welcome.

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[Jostler]

4 hours ago, simplejeff said:

What Are the Treatments for MRSA of the Nose? | Healthfully

https://healthfully.com/treatments-mrsa-nose-5124989.html

Jul 27, 2017Colonization. MRSA bacteria often live in nasal passages for years without ever showing any symptoms. In fact, the vast majority of hospital workers are colonized with MRSA in the nose, meaning that the bacteria have an established colony, but are not spreading or causing active infection.

 

===================================================================

 

From webmd  >> (not always correct, but often informative anyway) >>

 

 

A coronavirus is a kind of common virus that causes an infection in your nose, sinuses, or upper throat. Most coronaviruses are not dangerous.
www.webmd.com › Lung Disease & Respiratory Health › Reference

you might want to study the difference between bacteria and viruses.....they're just a little different one to the other.  

[Jostler]

On 1/26/2020 at 4:17 PM, Jostler said:

This is undeniably global now.  It will not be contained.

Officially admitted infections have risen to 2,797 and deaths to 80.  And even those numbers suffer from natural reporting delays.  Not to mention the official obfuscation that is now obvious.

..... doubling every 24 to 36 hours so far indicate this virus is more easily transmitted than SARS was. 

Good time to be immersed in Psalm 91....and looking up.

almost exactly 24hrs since the numbers were 2797 and 80......12 more hours and it will most likely be double....or more

 

Someone got a data dump...i was kinda hoping the projection would prove extreme....

 

BNO

Quote

There are currently 4,320 confirmed cases worldwide, including 106 fatalities.

 

Here's an article that came out about the same time....slightly different number but not by much

China Virus Cases Almost Double Overnight, Deaths Top 100 As North Korea Closes Border

Quote

Summary

• 4295 Cases confirmed worldwide

• 106 Dead worldwide

• 2714 Cases in Hubei (up 1291 overnight - a stunning 91% surge)

• 100 Dead in Hubei (up 24 overnight - a 24% surge)

• North Korea closes Chinese border.

• German reports first case

• US raises travel alert for China to Level 3 (2nd highest).

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by Jostler

[Neighbor]

8 hours ago, simplejeff said:

colloidal silver

Whoa bad stuff to be playing with! https://nccih.nih.gov/health/colloidalsilver  It caused very serious damage to my wife. She delayed proper treatment for her issues counting on a salesman of this foolishness and later died a rather horrible death as result of losing time while counting of the con men that sell this nonsense.

" Is Colloidal Silver Safe?

• Colloidal silver can cause serious side effects. The most common is argyria, a bluish-gray discoloration of the skin, which is usually permanent.
• Colloidal silver can also cause poor absorption of some drugs, such as certain antibiotics and thyroxine (used to treat thyroid deficiency).
• The FDA also warned in 1999 that colloidal silver isn’t safe or effective for treating any disease or condition.
• The FDA and the Federal Trade Commission have taken action against a number of companies for making misleading claims about colloidal silver products."

 

[Jostler]

2 minutes ago, Neighbor said:

 

" Is Colloidal Silver Safe?

 

can we stay on topic please?

[Neighbor]

Just now, Jostler said:

can we stay on topic please?

It is on topic when such a unsafe suggestion on how to treat it is made!

[Jostler]

it took a bit more than 36 hrs for official numbers to double...but we're there

Quote

There are currently 5,575 confirmed cases worldwide, including 131 fatalities.

3 new cases in Germany.....planes STILL flying out of Wuhan specifically, and the rest of China.  Hundreds of flights to many parts of the world today and yesterday. From Wuhan.  Anchorage, San Francisco, Singapore....  this is not contained and will not be.

[Jostler]

Quote

There are currently 6,058 confirmed cases worldwide, including 132 fatalities.

New update... looks like we probably did double the numbers in the anticipated 36hr time frame. 

[Dennis1209]

On 1/24/2020 at 9:14 PM, dhchristian said:

Today, China faces the spread of another mysterious disease, a coronavirus, which so far has killed 17 people and infected more than 570. And while Beijing’s response has improved in some ways, it has regressed in others. It is censoring criticism. It is detaining people for spreading what it calls “rumors.” It is suppressing information it deems alarming.

Though China’s censors are busily scrubbing the Chinese internet, the country’s online community is registering its disappointment and alarm over Beijing’s handling of the new virus that has spread since December from the city of Wuhan to other countries, even the United States.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/health/virus-corona.html

 

Don't Believe the numbers as China is Known for being untruthful. 36 million People are on Lockdown. think about that!

https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/What-s-new-in-the-China-virus-outbreak-15000702.php

 

 

 

 

 

Hey dhchristian!

I know you know this as well as I. Both secular scientists as well as believers know, it's just a matter of when, and not if. This coronavirus and so many others fall into the biblical category of "pestilence ", and we know what the Bible says about it in the end-times. Looking at the frequency and intensity of the global breakouts during just the last century, a picture emerges in my mind; birth pangs. 

I strongly believe we are getting a preview of everything prophetic converging all at once, and picking up steam. It's all staring at us smack dab in the face from the Bible.

It appears with this virus that people are contagious and spread it days before symptoms or signs of sickness occur. Man's efforts will not prevail when the appointed time is here. It only takes one infected with an airborne contagious disease to hop on an airliner. I've heard there's a few cases of this virus already discovered in California? 

Everything is drastically changing. I'm looking up for our Lord's soon return myself.