Peak Oil?

[forrestkc]

part of the peaking is not because the resource has been fully tapped. OPEC limits production. We are slso not tapping all the Oil available to us on our continent

Ok, first off, as to domestic reserves. Yes, we do have some untapped domestic reserves. However, our domestic oil production peaked in 1970 at just under 10 million barrels a day. We are currently at 5 million barrels a day. Now, say we open up ANWR. Best case scenario, maximum oil production at ANWR's peak will be 800,000 barrels a day and that is only at high crude prices. If crude prices dropped off, then not all that oil necessary for that level of production is economically recoverable. Now, say we got that oil production on line in just 10 years. By then, other domestic fields will be further depleted, so at current depletion rates, our total oil production even with ANWR will be less than it today without it.

As to OPEC. A lot of experts do not believe that OPEC is holding back as much as they simply do not have the spare capacity to increase production. In 2004, Saudi Arabia promised three times to increase production by a million barrels a day. Each time, they came back and explained they were having technical issues with production and called for foreign investment to help them produce more. That same year, it was leaked that Kuwaiti reserves were only about a third what they had stated. Some grim SPE papers on Ghawar got leaked. It was also revealed that Iranian production was about to collapse. Venezuela is also beginning to see issues.

The wild-card right now is Iraq. Iraqi oil production is much lower than its theoretical maximum production and could at least for the next few years offset production declines in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. That is, if the nation obtains the long term stability necessary for investment there.

[EricH]

part of the peaking is not because the resource has been fully tapped. OPEC limits production. We are slso not tapping all the Oil available to us on our continent

Ok, first off, as to domestic reserves. Yes, we do have some untapped domestic reserves. However, our domestic oil production peaked in 1970 at just under 10 million barrels a day. We are currently at 5 million barrels a day. Now, say we open up ANWR. Best case scenario, maximum oil production at ANWR's peak will be 800,000 barrels a day and that is only at high crude prices. If crude prices dropped off, then not all that oil necessary for that level of production is economically recoverable. Now, say we got that oil production on line in just 10 years. By then, other domestic fields will be further depleted, so at current depletion rates, our total oil production even with ANWR will be less than it today without it.

As to OPEC. A lot of experts do not believe that OPEC is holding back as much as they simply do not have the spare capacity to increase production. In 2004, Saudi Arabia promised three times to increase production by a million barrels a day. Each time, they came back and explained they were having technical issues with production and called for foreign investment to help them produce more. That same year, it was leaked that Kuwaiti reserves were only about a third what they had stated. Some grim SPE papers on Ghawar got leaked. It was also revealed that Iranian production was about to collapse. Venezuela is also beginning to see issues.

The wild-card right now is Iraq. Iraqi oil production is much lower than its theoretical maximum production and could at least for the next few years offset production declines in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. That is, if the nation obtains the long term stability necessary for investment there.

1. There are still undrilled areas that we have not tapped.

2. The so called "lots of experts" argument is only hearsay now.

The truth is we have enought oil. It is dsitribution that is the issue

[forrestkc]

1. There are still undrilled areas that we have not tapped.

2. The so called "lots of experts" argument is only hearsay now.

The truth is we have enought oil. It is dsitribution that is the issue

Where domestically do we have enough oil to substantially increase domestic oil production?

[hr.jr.]

Just wondering if others have heard or read much about this.

Peak Oil is the point or timeframe at which the maximum global petroleum production rate is reached. After this timeframe, the rate of production will enter terminal decline. That point is essentially when half of the oil has been extracted from an oil field, nation, or in this case worldwide. Once you reach that halfway point, there is still plenty of oil left, but you cannot increase production beyond where you were at the peak, and the oil left gets increasingly more expensive to extract.

Where this is a big problem is in worldwide demand. Say oil production peaks at 90 million barrels a day and oil demand is 90 million barrels a day. Ok, thats fine, the problem is that as the world's economy grows, that demand grows. Now, say a year later, worldwide demand is 91 million barrels a day, but oil production is 89 million barrels a day. At that point, oil prices go through the roof, and with each passing year, it only gets worse because demand increases while production falls off. The end result is worldwide economic depression, and resource conflicts on a scale that civilization has never encountered before.

Ok, as everyone I am sure knows, oil prices are now over 90 dollars a barrel. Now some of that is risk, especially with the level of instability in the Middle East, and issues with Iran, but a lot of it is the fact the demand is growing so fast. As the economies of India and China grow, more and more Indians and Chinese have the financial resources to buy a vehicle, and therefore oil demand increases.

Oil production peaked worldwide in May, 2006 at about 85,500,000 barrels a day. Since then its plateaued. Now, historically, the gap between worldwide production and demand has never exceeded .1%. This year it has averaged .5% to 1%. Hence the really high oil prices. To put this into perspective, in 1999, oil was running as low as 20 dollars a barrel. So what if we have hit the peak, and within a year or two, oil production starts to rapidly fall off?

Pretty scary stuff if you ask me.

If we ever do use up the oil, we will use something else. Look back in history. Do you not remember that as the whales were beginning to disappear, everyone was wondering where they would get fuel for their lamps. Entire cities were lit by whale oil. Whale fishing stopped, the world did not end.

[other one]

1. There are still undrilled areas that we have not tapped.

2. The so called "lots of experts" argument is only hearsay now.

The truth is we have enought oil. It is dsitribution that is the issue

Where domestically do we have enough oil to substantially increase domestic oil production?

According to family members that are in the drilling business, there are a lot of wells that have been drilled and simply capped. Just waiting for production. Also there are some really interesting stories coming out of the Alaska area concerning possible finds there that are not even talked about. The oil that we get from the north slope is being slowed down from having to pump the natrual gas back into the ground instead of liquifying it and bringing it to the lower 48 to put into the natural gas grid. The reinserting it into the ground is slowing production and will cause us to not be able to get nearly all the oil out of the ground.

[forrestkc]

According to family members that are in the drilling business, there are a lot of wells that have been drilled and simply capped. Just waiting for production. Also there are some really interesting stories coming out of the Alaska area concerning possible finds there that are not even talked about. The oil that we get from the north slope is being slowed down from having to pump the natrual gas back into the ground instead of liquifying it and bringing it to the lower 48 to put into the natural gas grid. The reinserting it into the ground is slowing production and will cause us to not be able to get nearly all the oil out of the ground.

The reason why natural gas pumped back into the ground in oil fields on the Alaskan North Slope is that those fields are depleting. They pump natural gas back into them to keep pressure on the remaining reserves so they can increase production on a declining field. This is a common technique used to recover oil in declining field. If they were not doing it, we would getting far less oil out of the North Slope than we currently are. In fact, carbon sequestration will probably be used for the same purpose.

[forrestkc]

If we ever do use up the oil, we will use something else. Look back in history. Do you not remember that as the whales were beginning to disappear, everyone was wondering where they would get fuel for their lamps. Entire cities were lit by whale oil. Whale fishing stopped, the world did not end.

The question is not whether we use up the oil. We won't use up all the oil for at least another 100 to 150 years. The problem is that once you have used up half of the world's recoverable oil, you can't continue to increase production to meet world demand and while this would not be the end of the world, it would result in severe worldwide economic depression until new sources of energy were found and developed and frankly there is simply nothing on the horizon with the kind of energy return of oil.

[hr.jr.]

If we ever do use up the oil, we will use something else. Look back in history. Do you not remember that as the whales were beginning to disappear, everyone was wondering where they would get fuel for their lamps. Entire cities were lit by whale oil. Whale fishing stopped, the world did not end.

The question is not whether we use up the oil. We won't use up all the oil for at least another 100 to 150 years. The problem is that once you have used up half of the world's recoverable oil, you can't continue to increase production to meet world demand and while this would not be the end of the world, it would result in severe worldwide economic depression until new sources of energy were found and developed and frankly there is simply nothing on the horizon with the kind of energy return of oil.

When demand exceeds supply, demand will be altered. There are plenty of alternative fuels available. Bio diesel is a much more viable option the ethanol.

[georgesbluegirl]

If we ever do use up the oil, we will use something else. Look back in history. Do you not remember that as the whales were beginning to disappear, everyone was wondering where they would get fuel for their lamps. Entire cities were lit by whale oil. Whale fishing stopped, the world did not end.

The question is not whether we use up the oil. We won't use up all the oil for at least another 100 to 150 years. The problem is that once you have used up half of the world's recoverable oil, you can't continue to increase production to meet world demand and while this would not be the end of the world, it would result in severe worldwide economic depression until new sources of energy were found and developed and frankly there is simply nothing on the horizon with the kind of energy return of oil.

And - this may be implied in your argument, but it's a point worth bringing out - while the original idea that "Hubbert's Peak" was going to come up around, well, NOW, has been proven incorrect as we discover more and more smaller reserves, the most pressing issue isn't that we'll run out of oil, it's that the remaining oil is in harder to reach places. Eventually the cost of getting to a smaller amount of oil is prohibitive, even with increasing demand.

[irishcowboy]

Pretty scary stuff if you ask me. ??????????

naaaahhh, not scary at all...... reminds me of the movie road warrior.... we are heading that direction.... not just with fuel, but with our attitudes towards each other and creation.......

man was suppose to take care of this earth, wow, we have done a wonderful job of being good stewards of this earth.... NOT!

there is a nice 'fear-mongering' site that i was looking at last year

it's called lifeaftertheoilcrash

kind of interesting to read stuff like that sometimes especially the preparedness part

fear=mongering..... yeap, good word for it.... this past week, we parked one vehicle.... out of choice, not necessity.....

we are currently getting ready to down size our house and other things.... (have a 4 bed room house on a regular lot in town, and getting ready to move to a two bedroom on an acre in town... that is boardered by a creek on one side, and a small lot with a double wide on the other end, have planted ceders around the entire property line.)....

have seen a commercial about building a straw house, would like to have been able to see that show, sounds warm.....lol...

thatched roofs were a good thing (insulation wise), but with fire places, you did not want your fire very large at all, one ember/spark is all she would take....

right now, all electric is the most cost efficient method.....

with floor furnaces and some wall furnaces, that are gas, if you loose electric, you still have heat....

but with centrals... if you loose electric, you loose heat, unless you also have a generator....

with gas and electric, we get charged twice for meters, customer charges, delivery charges, taxes on taxes twice ...... so forth and so on ( a lot of natural gas is bled off when processing oil into petrolium products)

we have to be smarter, wind mills are not a bad thing...... solar panels are not a bad thing.... sky lights are not a bad thing ( they have come up with some really neat windows now, called "Low-E" windows, that allow very little transfer of heat......

anyways......

this world is coming to a close as we know it........ so we all need to ensure we are all ready for that sound of the trumpet blast......

mike