Coronavirus

[angels4u]

2 minutes ago, Jostler said:

one thing i learned a week ago, four days before it was published in the Lancet Journal, was that "Patient 1"  the very earliest coronavirus victim we know of so far, presented to  the hospital with symptoms on DECEMBER 1st, 2019.   A full month before China notified the WHO they had a strange novel virus that was killing people and reporting the 'first' eleven cases.

But it wasn't the first cases...and they knew that THEN.  They did not include "patient 1"  (we still don't know who patient zero was).

The odd thing about Patient 1's case, is the fact he had no contact with the "wet market" the MSM is so busy making sure the general public understands is the source of this outbreak....AND he had no epidemiological connection to ANY other known victims.

The evidence is clearly pointing the virus came TO the wet market, from somewhere.  It did not originate there.  We still don't know where it came from, we don't know who patient zero is and may never know.

What we do know is that Chinese officials knew about this long before they were forced to admit it and report it to the WHO.  And we know the infection had to have begun sometime in November.  Perhaps as early as mid-November due to the rather unusually long incubation rate...up to 15 days.

In mid-December 8 doctors in Wuhan were forced to appear before the police and were punished for "spreading rumours" about a puzzling "SARS-like" unknown virus that was killing their patients.  They were sharing information in their group on WeChat and were disciplined for trying to figure out what they were facing.

Cab drivers knew there was a new disease outbreak afoot even before that as well... the community was figuring it out in mid-December and the cabbies were hearing the stories.   There is NO way China has been open and transparent about this, yet the WHO spends more time trying to get you to believe they have been in press conferences than they do informing people about the epidemic.

China "talked" only when it couldn't be covered up again, which is what governments do....and cultural fear of losing face makes that doubly tempting for China. 

China lied about Patient 1 (by omission) and China lied about human to human transmission....which was KNOWN from case histories already in the hands of the doctors who got threatened for discussing it.

China is NOT the knight in shining armor someone is trying to portray them to be, and it may be more than just cultural sensitivity behind their deceptions.

Case studies are now being published, and not only is this thing VERY transmissible, it is contagious almost from the point of infection...with a LONG incubation period where the infected person has no clue they are infected, no symptoms at all and yet they are shedding this virus like crazy.

It is airborne....a sneeze can infect everyone within 6 feet...

Yet China denied there was any evidence of human to human transmission until mid-January, when they knew it was happening from the case studies of the first victims they reported....and had evidence pointing to the fact weeks before that.   Much less reporting it was airborne.

Once the cat was out of the bag, China moved very forcefully....quarantining 46 million people within a few days after Jan 20th.   Blocking roads in and out of Wuhan, and even a few other places....hospitals were ALREADY

They ordered the doctors in December not to tell people people about the disease,they were trying to hide it from the world,when they knew they couldn't hide it any longer ,they decided to take steps to contain this awful disease.

But lets not forget that our hope is in God and not in this evil world.

[missmuffet]

On 2/1/2020 at 7:09 PM, DustyRoad said:

This isn't true. There are four strains of the Ebola virus which affect humans and two generalized groups of the Marburg virus all with differing mortality rates; depending upon the outbreak and strain, the mortality rate ranges between 25% - 90%. A vaccine based upon the genome of Zaire ebola was fielded last year. 



 

Ebola virus is often fatal. It all depends on how quick you get help. 

[Jostler]

1 minute ago, angels4u said:

They ordered the doctors in December not to tell people people about the disease,they were trying to hide it from the world,when they knew they couldn't hide it any longer ,they decided to take steps to contain this awful disease.

But lets not forget that our hope is in God and not in this evil world.

i'm counting on that...and looking up     I have no hope in this evil world...i'm looking forward to the day my King returns to fix it.  And looking out for the signs He said would precede His return.  I said long ago this will NOT be contained, and it won't.

With an R0 likely somewhere in the range of 4 NONE of the measures taken to date by any nation will contain it.  This will be with us a very long time.  It remains to be seen just how deadly it is, but pathetic comparisons to annual flus are so disingenuous and pathetically misleading and again, coming from institutions that know it.

We've spent more time and energy in this thread dodging false accusations and smears than we have been able to actually talk about the problem that is OBVIOUS to anyone willing to scratch beneath the surface of an MSM enabled, officially sanctioned disinformation campaign.

I'm not in the least afraid.  We were warned this was coming one day and told to watch for it.  There is a day coming when we will survive by His power, or not survive at all.  And it's time to get ready....

The "official" numbers are nowhere near the truth...but they're what we have.  It is possible to rationally, logically work with those, take into account all the peripheral information that is readily available from "unofficial" sources and begin making some educated guesses about what the officials are trying desperately to keep us from seeing.

I hope the next thread will be left unmolested for those who want to know the Truth, want to follow Him where ever Truth leads, and understand the times we live in.  This is the world He died to save....soon there will be  a lot of fat, self-satisfied hearts getting hungry....and we better be there, ready to feed that hunger with the Truth.  It is harvest time....

[frienduff thaylorde]

3 minutes ago, Jostler said:

i'm counting on that...and looking up     I have no hope in this evil world...i'm looking forward to the day my King returns to fix it.  And looking out for the signs He said would precede His return.  I said long ago this will NOT be contained, and it won't.

With an R0 likely somewhere in the range of 4 NONE of the measures taken to date by any nation will contain it.  This will be with us a very long time.  It remains to be seen just how deadly it is, but pathetic comparisons to annual flus are so disingenuous and pathetically misleading and again, coming from institutions that know it.

We've spent more time and energy in this thread dodging false accusations and smears than we have been able to actually talk about the problem that is OBVIOUS to anyone willing to scratch beneath the surface of an MSM enabled, officially sanctioned disinformation campaign.

I'm not in the least afraid.  We were warned this was coming one day and told to watch for it.  There is a day coming when we will survive by His power, or not survive at all.  And it's time to get ready....

The "official" numbers are nowhere near the truth...but they're what we have.  It is possible to rationally, logically work with those, take into account all the peripheral information that is readily available from "unofficial" sources and begin making some educated guesses about what the officials are trying desperately to keep us from seeing.

I hope the next thread will be left unmolested for those who want to know the Truth, want to follow Him where ever Truth leads, and understand the times we live in.  This is the world He died to save....soon there will be  a lot of fat, self-satisfied hearts getting hungry....and we better be there, ready to feed that hunger with the Truth.  It is harvest time....

Feed those hungry souls the gospel .     

[Jostler]

18 hours ago, missmuffet said:

Ebola virus is often fatal. It all depends on how quick you get help. 

In it's current form, given the purposeful deception we don't have a clue what the case fatality rate is for 2019 nCoV.  But what we can discern is that even if the favorite "2.2%" death rate is accurate (it's not) it will still kill thousands more than SARS did just due to the ease of transmission and mind boggling R0.

And rna viruses mutate easily...this could easily recombine in any host and come out with different and far more severe characteristics.   Should you happen to hear of a new human case of H5N1 in the near future....it would be good to think through what a pandemic with the lethality of Bird flu, and incubation period of this one would look like.

A broader understanding of what satan is doing, what needs to be swept away next for his globalist minions to begin making the next step, and just how well a nice little pandemic pushes those plans along makes this an issue worth seriously discussing.

Edited February 4, 2020 by Jostler

[Jostler]

7 minutes ago, frienduff thaylorde said:

Feed those hungry souls the gospel .     

hunger for answers and spiritual truth is about to reach famine proportions.  We better be ready to distribute His food, in His name.....there is little hunger in our society these days....He's going to change that

[frienduff thaylorde]

2 minutes ago, Jostler said:

hunger for answers and spiritual truth is about to reach famine proportions.  We better be ready to distribute His food, in His name.....there is little hunger in our society these days....He's going to change that

and a major part of that , will be exposing the inclusive lie ,  and pointing to the truth , to the pure and holy original gospel that was given so long ago .

Ol frienduff , by grace , is dug in deep in those trenches .    Rounds of gospel truth , coming down range .    Stand and contend for the true faith and let it be done today and for as long as we have breath in our lungs .

[Jostler]

I've got a sheet of paper in front of me right now, that used the official numbers from a week ago and made a few logical, rational, fear free assumptions ....i chose a conservative figure of official numbers increasing by an average of 30% per day.  My projection predicted we'd hit between twenty and thirty thousand infections by February 4th.  This is not meant to be some kind of "i told you so".  But evidence that a very measured and logical approach to the information we have can be useful in projecting potential outcomes.  My projection is  a day off...we hit 20,000 today.

Quote

There are currently 20,626 confirmed cases worldwide, including 426 fatalities.

 

There are a lot of other analyses I've done, and those are pretty much on track too.  When this secondary phase in countries other than China hits it's stride, and we've done nothing that will stop it, numbers we're seeing now in Hubei province will be repeated in several other parts of the world.

Back of the napkin number crunching is not useless, and not fear mongering.   We have something less than 1.2 million hospital beds in the US.  About 120,000 of those are ICU beds.  Less than 25% of those are free at any given time, quite a bit less for ICU.  Hospital beds cost a lot to create and maintain and empty ones don't generate any income to cover that cost.

So if we just have a think about what it would take to create a situation just like we see in Wuhan...a medical system TOTALLY overwhelmed, we can get a clearer picture of what potential this pandemic represents.  Very simple risk/reward analysis strongly implies making a few sensible preparations might be very wise at this point.

In its current form, the the most at risk, severe cases of this virus have a much better chance of surviving if they can get into an ICU bed when they need one.  Many in Wuhan can't even get a regular hospital bed.   There are about 2.5 hospital beds per person in the US and less than 300,000 of those are free at any given time.  There is a huge difference when good hospital care is available. 

Given the trajectory of the official numbers we can follow in China, it's very likely we'll see much the same result as we now see in Wuhan in much of the world.  We might save some with a very minor bit of preparation...some extra ibuprofen or naproxyn or aspirin to control fevers, some electrolytes to help replace those depleted by vomiting and diarrhea.  Some extra Vitamin C and D....a few extra bottles of hand sanitizer....simple things that might mean a life, and a witness of the love of Jesus.  And perhaps a few weeks of non-perishable food just in case we end up in a quarantine zone ourselves at some point.

Looking forward, assessing probabilities, and taking sensible measures to address them is NOT fear mongering...it's wisdom.  And being prepared to be a witness....if someone wants to cower in fear for self...go right ahead.  I plan to be in a position to go help my neighbors who don't know Him.

And would love to help those who desire that same thing be ready to do the same.   This is our battlefield....not our graveyard.  Learn the lay of the land we're called to fight on.

Edited February 4, 2020 by Jostler

[Jostler]

this is the kind of information i'm talking about.  Case studies are now coming available. 

 

  https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

Quote

Before the onset of symptoms, he had attended meetings with a Chinese business partner at his company near Munich on January 20 and 21. The business partner, a Shanghai resident, had visited Germany between Jan. 19 and 22. During her stay, she had been well with no signs or symptoms of infection but had become ill on her flight back to China, where she tested positive for 2019-nCoV on January 26 (index patient in Figure 1).

On January 27, she informed the company about her illness. Contact tracing was started, and the above-mentioned colleague was sent to the Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine in Munich for further assessment. At presentation, he was afebrile and well. He reported no previous or chronic illnesses and had no history of foreign travel within 14 days before the onset of symptoms. Two nasopharyngeal swabs and one sputum sample were obtained and were found to be positive for 2019-nCoV on quantitative reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (qRT-PCR) assay.² Follow-up qRT-PCR assay revealed a high viral load of 10⁸ copies per milliliter in his sputum during the following days, with the last available result on January 29.

On January 28, three additional employees at the company tested positive for 2019-nCoV (Patients 2 through 4 in Figure 1). Of these patients, only Patient 2 had contact with the index patient; the other two patients had contact only with Patient 1. In accordance with the health authorities, all the patients with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection were admitted to a Munich infectious diseases unit for clinical monitoring and isolation. So far, none of the four confirmed patients show signs of severe clinical illness.

This case of 2019-nCoV infection was diagnosed in Germany and transmitted outside of Asia. However, it is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.³

The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak. In this context, the detection of 2019-nCoV and a high sputum viral load in a convalescent patient (Patient 1) arouse concern about prolonged shedding of 2019-nCoV after recovery. Yet, the viability of 2019-nCoV detected on qRT-PCR in this patient remains to be proved by means of viral culture.

fake news courtesy of the New England Journal of Medicine....and relevant.  I posted that before the servers went down.  Has anyone actually thought through what DATA this gives us?  What conclusions can be drawn?

1.  In this study,  the index patient for this local outbreak was asymptomatic when she passed the virus to at least one, maybe two other people.  A week later, Patient 1 was tested after a mild bout with flu like symptoms. 

2.  A day later, 3 more infected were identified.  One of the three had contact with the index patient.  The other two had only had contact with patient 1.  Fortunately all these were healthy  enough that so far at least, none have developed severe symptoms.  But, given the obvious ease of transmission, how many of these four Germans infected others?

3.  And this is not the first case study that has left reason to believe patients might STILL be contagious AFTER they have personally recovered.

That will need more data to determine for sure, but so far, the fact this is obviously easily transmissible by people who feel fine, is a concern.  And if they remain carriers even after they themselves have recovered....well that's a really good thing we need to know.

SARS was NOT transmissible until the patient themselves showed symptoms.....that alone is a huge difference between this outbreak and SARS.  Something to watch, and it's very likely this case study will identify still more that these four have infected.....something to watch.

[one.opinion]

12 hours ago, Jostler said:

that's a great technique they like to use.  get a known liar to talk about something already controversial, fill his article with totally disprovable other BS, and get people who don't dig to reject something they already don't want you looking at.

This is a very real controversy with a LOT of evidence behind it....and very reputable people asserting this virus is genetically engineered..

Like Dr Francis Boyle

So we have a lawyer that *believes* 2019-nCoV was genetically-engineered. For a speculation "with a LOT of evidence behind it", I sure haven't seen anything I would call evidence.