Unemployment rate down to 4.3%

[Running Gator]

3 minutes ago, wingnut- said:

 

He may not be singing that tune, but it still holds true.  For several years I was unable to work due to a disability from an accident, I did not qualify for unemployment and was denied assistance by the state and federal government.  So those numbers never reflected those in my situation, and there are a lot, so unemployment is always higher than their figures suggest.  What thread are you referring to as far as job types?  If you can link it here for me, or let me know the name of it, I would be interested in reading it.

God bless

If you to go ADP they break out the numbers by sector.  I am about to take my son to the doctor, I can find a link to that breakdown when I get back if you would like

[wingnut-]

3 minutes ago, Running Gator said:

If you to go ADP they break out the numbers by sector.  I am about to take my son to the doctor, I can find a link to that breakdown when I get back if you would like

 

Thanks, I will go back and read this again, and yes I would appreciate additional info when you have the time.

God bless

[Running Gator]

2 hours ago, wingnut- said:

 

Thanks, I will go back and read this again, and yes I would appreciate additional info when you have the time.

God bless

https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2017/May/NER/NER-May-2017.aspx

 

[Steve_S]

5 hours ago, Running Gator said:

Yep, he has just allowed the trend that has been going on for the last 6 years to continue.  

If it is holding in 2020 it's highly unlikely that he will lose reelection, that's for sure. Presidents carry blame and get credit, every time, despite whether or not they are responsible.

[Running Gator]

1 hour ago, Steve_S said:

If it is holding in 2020 it's highly unlikely that he will lose reelection, that's for sure. Presidents carry blame and get credit, every time, despite whether or not they are responsible.

I am not sure what the chances of that are.  The UE rate topped at in Oct 2009 and has been trending lower ever since.   So, we are at 92 months of trending down. 

Under Reagan, the UE rate topped at in Nov of 1982 and trended down for till Aug of 1989, which was 81 months.  

In June of 1992 we started another downward trend that lasted till Sep of 2000 for 99 months of trending down, which was the longest in our history.  

In order for this to keep up under Trump till the next election we are getting into the 130 plus month range, which has never happened in the history of our country.   Also, at 4.3 there is not too much further for it to go.   Since 1948 the UE rate has been 4.3 or lower for 144 months out of 833, or for 17% of the time.  Since 1980 it has only been that low or lower for 21 out of 449 months, or 5% of the time.  

So, yes if these numbers hold Trump will win in a landslide as he will keep the middle.  But since the odds of that happening are very low, how high can it go before he starts to lose the middle?  For the hardcore people on either side the UE number will not matter at all.  

 

All data came from here...https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

[LadyKay]

5 hours ago, Steve_S said:

If it is holding in 2020 it's highly unlikely that he will lose reelection,

We're all going to be underwater in 2020 when the polar ice caps melt, and then we will all have to migrate to Mexico. Expect we wont be able to get in because of the Wall. 

( that would make a really good movie) 

 

[Steve_S]

3 hours ago, Running Gator said:

I am not sure what the chances of that are.  The UE rate topped at in Oct 2009 and has been trending lower ever since.   So, we are at 92 months of trending down. 

Under Reagan, the UE rate topped at in Nov of 1982 and trended down for till Aug of 1989, which was 81 months.  

In June of 1992 we started another downward trend that lasted till Sep of 2000 for 99 months of trending down, which was the longest in our history.  

In order for this to keep up under Trump till the next election we are getting into the 130 plus month range, which has never happened in the history of our country.   Also, at 4.3 there is not too much further for it to go.   Since 1948 the UE rate has been 4.3 or lower for 144 months out of 833, or for 17% of the time.  Since 1980 it has only been that low or lower for 21 out of 449 months, or 5% of the time.  

So, yes if these numbers hold Trump will win in a landslide as he will keep the middle.  But since the odds of that happening are very low, how high can it go before he starts to lose the middle?  For the hardcore people on either side the UE number will not matter at all.  

 

All data came from here...https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

That link doesn't work right now, it seems as if the database is not available, perhaps weekend maintenance, but I will trust your statistics on it.

Actually, the unemployment rate still has 1.5 to 2.5 more points that it can climb before actually peaking. 4 percent is generally the accepted possible peak for the U3 unemployment rate, which is the number you're giving. There are many accepted reasons for this, but most economists seem to agree that it mainly has to do with the fact that 2 to 3 percent of the U3 work force at any given time is actually actively purposefully switching jobs. Historically speaking, for all intents and purposes, 4 percent is basically total employment from the U3 perspective.

However, the U6 unemployment rate, which basically counts those who are not in the work force but want to be or are working low paying part time jobs while seeking full time jobs, is still over 8 percent.  When the economy is at the top of its game the U6 rate will generally be just under to around 7 percent while the U3 rate is at 4. This particular metric still has about 1.5 percent to 2 percent to climb. During the great recession the differential between the U3 and U6 broke the historical normative, so we still have another ways to go until we are actually at the peak. The U3 can remain at 4.3-4.5 percent while the U6 continues to drop, as with every new jobs that is added to the U3, more people leave the U6 for the U3 pool. Only when this rate gets at or below 7 percent historically is there a true level off.

Having said this, i don't entirely disagree with you that it would be fairly difficult to keep this rate of job growth. I think it is more possible than in most historically comparable conditions though. The U6 rate will probably not drop to its relative rate until mid to late 2018, if we continue at the same rate. This would give trump basically a year and a half to two to have to hold at the true peak, rather than the 3-1/2 that it seems like now.

I do think there is something to be said for the fact that this recovery will probably be longer than normal, based on the fact that the prior recession and the effects felt from it were longer than normal. A lot of people were holding out on really going in on investments for probably 50 percent longer than they would during a normal recovery. Mainly, right now, there is no real bubble on the horizon that I know of that is apt to burst. The credit and housing crisis was obviously on the horizon for a good five years. Right now the only thing comparable to that is healthcare, but it is in a total state of flux and could stabilize in either direction. Healthcare is also a service and not a property. The success of service related businesses depend, above all else, on consumers, and basically everybody is a consumer of healthcare and that is not changing anytime soon, so it is highly unlikely that such a collapse would occur in the healthcare industry itself, unless something ridiculous like single payer were passed, then, of course, all bets are off.

[Steve_S]

14 minutes ago, LadyKay said:

We're all going to be underwater in 2020 when the polar ice caps melt, and then we will all have to migrate to Mexico. Expect we wont be able to get in because of the Wall. 

( that would make a really good movie) 

 

If the water goes high enough, you could just swim over it.

[MorningGlory]

10 minutes ago, LadyKay said:

We're all going to be underwater in 2020 when the polar ice caps melt, and then we will all have to migrate to Mexico. Expect we wont be able to get in because of the Wall. 

( that would make a really good movie) 

 

LK, you're being dramatic but that DOES sound like a good movie plot.  The Paris deal wouldn't even kick in for most countries until 2030 though and, remember, we have already cut our greenhouse gas production by 18% while most of the world has done nothing.    That deal is also nonbinding and nonenforceable.  Basically, it's us paying billions and China and India allowed to continue to pollute.  Who would stay in something like that who wasn't insane?

[wingnut-]

9 hours ago, Running Gator said:

https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2017/May/NER/NER-May-2017.aspx

 

 

Thanks for the link gator, was a good read, and the numbers are better than I had thought.