Are we POSITIVE we are not overreacting?

[BeauJangles]

Are we POSITIVE we are not overreacting?

We could well be, depending on who you ask.  

 

US goes totally nuts, says Russia is spreading Coronavirus ...

https://www.eutimes.net/2020/02/us-goes-totally-nuts-says-russia-is-spreading-corona...

US goes totally nuts, says Russia is spreading Coronavirus fake news Not satisfied with just blaming Russia for election meddling, US officials are now claiming Moscow is trying to “sow discord” by spreading disinformation about the coronavirus and the US’ role in its creation and global response.

[Abrielle]

I am positive. I will give you my point of view using Europe, as it is predicted to be the worse case and it is where i live.

Epidemiology studies the way contagious diseases are spread. Mathematical models, using laws that translate into differential equations, solved by computational models, allow us to know how a disease is behaving and predict its outcome, so we can prepare ourselves accordingly. One model is the SIR (Susceptible Infected Recovered) model. Regardless of the disease, by this model we know for a fact that the propagation stage is exponential. It is then followed by a moment of slowdown, then it will decrease and end, eventually (and almost). Mathematics are still studying the parameters of coronavirus, because Europe is not comparable to China, we cannot use their parameters to predict our outcome. So: We know little about the disease, we have no cure, nor vaccine, we are looking at what is happening in Italy, then our only solution is to prevent propagation.

In China we learnt that the coronavirus differentiate ages, it spreads faster and it has a higher death rate among older people. 60% of China's  population is bellow 39 years of age, China is extremely young. Europe is extremelly old. We will have much more cases per million of population and we will have more deaths too. Chinese numbers don't describe the European situation at all.

A couple of days ago, the daily growth rate in Italy was 21%, Germany was 23%, France 30%, Spain 40%. At this rate, Italy and Germany would  duplicate their cases every four days, in France every three days and in Spain every two days. If we keep growing like this, we will have many people infected and much more critical situations than the hospitals can manage.  In most European countries, if the growth rate is high, we will not have machines for everybody who will need.

Italy has been dealing with this for days. Doctors are looking at their patients and deciding who is more valuable. Who will have the respiratory machine: the father of 5 or the father of 1? The grandfather or the mother? The people who are living this ask us to stay at home, to isolate, so our rate of growth decreases and hospitals won't be saturated. If our growth rate decreases, we will stay longer in the stabilised stage, with new cases everyday, but we will not have as many people in the hospitals all at once.

I cannot see how are we overreacting now. Some people are losing more than one family member at once. This time, to be rational means to take the measures we are not used to. We should have overreacted sooner, by taking care of our borders. China should have told us sooner. We are learning a lesson together.

Now, what all this has to do with toilet paper i am still to discover. 

[Jostler]

it's the idiotic UNDER-reaction that has guaranteed the US will repeat Italy's experience....and the government knew it.  Had all the data necessary, all the epidemiological expertise necessary and at their fingertips and lied to you.  It would be good for people to begin asking why.

[R. Hartono]

On 3/16/2020 at 8:10 PM, ReneeIW said:

I apologize for asking a stupid question but there are 1.5 BILLION people in China and about 80,000 got the virus and only a small fraction of those unfortunately passed away. And people said if China had handled it better even less would have died. Every life matters and we should do everything we can to contain the virus,  but this virus pales in comparison to the pandemics of the past.

Maybe I am missing something but it does seem like there is a bit of overreaction which is making matters worse and bringing down the economy.

The number of infected has increased by 40 thousand in the last two days, scary.

[Jostler]

Just now, maryjayne said:

same can be said for the UK

yes, your government made the same choices.  And your hospitals will soon be overwhelmed as well.....ICU beds full and medical personnel forced to decide who gets life saving treatment and who does not.  We are on our own, because our governments sold us out for a bowl of soup....  and the soup is spoiled too now.

 

[other one]

2 hours ago, Jostler said:

it's the idiotic UNDER-reaction that has guaranteed the US will repeat Italy's experience....and the government knew it.  Had all the data necessary, all the epidemiological expertise necessary and at their fingertips and lied to you.  It would be good for people to begin asking why.

What would you have had them to earlier Jostler?

[other one]

2 hours ago, Godismyloveforever said:

We are most certainly living in quite interesting times. 

 

Isn't that a very old Chinese curse?

[Figure of eighty]

2 hours ago, Jostler said:

it's the idiotic UNDER-reaction that has guaranteed the US will repeat Italy's experience....and the government knew it.  Had all the data necessary, all the epidemiological expertise necessary and at their fingertips and lied to you.  It would be good for people to begin asking why.

Totally agree. 

[Blood Bought 1953]

9 minutes ago, Figure of eighty said:

Totally agree. 

My first question is , “ Where does the Buck stop?” How things have deteriorated since the days of Harry Truman......sad....

[Jostler]

5 hours ago, other one said:

What would you have had them to earlier Jostler?

actually do *something* to prepare maybe??  I've been trying to talk about that for two months now.....sorry if I sound frustrated, it's only because I am.

Edited March 20, 2020 by Jostler